Japan suffers from a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange.
Due to the ongoing tension in the Middle East, investors' concerns about the Japanese economy, which is highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, falling into stagflation, continue to deepen. Funds are fleeing the Japanese market, leading to a recent "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currency.
Since February 28, the Tokyo stock market has experienced several significant declines, with a cumulative drop of about 4400 points so far. With recent sharp increases in international oil prices, the two major stock indices in Tokyo continued their downward trend on March 13th, continuing to test lower levels. That day, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average Index closed at 53819.61 points, down about 7.5% over the past 10 trading days. Investors are worried that rising oil prices will increase transportation costs and lead to a decline in external demand, causing significant drops in stocks related to manufacturing such as Toyota.
Due to investors' expectations that high oil prices may exacerbate inflation in Japan, government bonds of various maturities in the Tokyo bond market have recently been sold off, leading to a continuous rise in long-term government bond yields. On the 13th, the new 10-year government bond yield, as a long-term interest rate benchmark, rose by 6 basis points to reach 2.24%.
In the Tokyo foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar, having hovered around 1 dollar to 155 yen on February 27, falling into the 1 to 159 range on March 13. In the afternoon of the 13th, the yen exchange rate once touched 1 to 159.6, reaching its lowest level since July 2024. Market analysts believe that the continued rise in oil prices will widen Japan's trade deficit, leading to a continued weak yen.
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