Bank of America: If oil prices soar to $120 per barrel, Thailand will face the risk of stagflation.

In a research report, Bank of America warned that if oil prices continue to soar to around $120 per barrel and maintain that level for six months, Thailand may fall into stagflation, dragging down economic growth. The main risk is the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as Thailand is a major net energy importer and is highly vulnerable to rising energy costs, which could have adverse effects on the tourism industry, exports, and domestic consumption. The sustained increase in energy prices could put pressure on public finances. However, Bank of America has raised its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2026 from 1.6% to 1.8%, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance in the fourth quarter as laying a more solid foundation for this year's economy.