Huatai Securities: The surge in oil prices in the US-Iran conflict may push up electricity prices.

Huatai Securities research report stated that global oil prices surged significantly under the US-Iran conflict, driving overseas coal prices up. Based on expectations, the core price of 5500 kcal power coal at North Port in China is expected to rise to around 750 yuan/ton in 2026. Huatai Securities calculated that if the price of 5500 kcal power coal at the port rises by 50 yuan/ton, wholesale electricity prices on the supply side will increase by 2.9%, corresponding to an increase of 2.0% - 2.2% in industrial electricity prices. The increase in demand for AIDC green electricity brought about by Token going overseas is expected to push up green certificate prices. Currently, green certificate prices are only 9% of carbon prices. If green certificate prices rise to match carbon prices, wholesale electricity prices will increase by 15%, and industrial electricity prices will increase by 10% - 11%. The rise in coal prices will lead to a more favorable increase in market-based electricity prices for stable and clean energy costs. It is also recommended to operate more stable coal and electricity joint venture companies.