CICC: Risks of "stagflation" in the United States continue to rise

CICC stated in its 2026 macro outlook report that the biggest risk facing the US economy is "stagflation-like". Recent developments have gradually confirmed and further strengthened this judgment. On one hand, the US-Iran conflict has pushed up oil prices, and with the driving force of inflation shifting more towards structural factors, the stickiness of inflation may continue to strengthen. On the other hand, the substitution effect of AI on white-collar positions is beginning to show, restraining the momentum of employment expansion; at the same time, risks in private credit continue to rise, and once the industry enters the liquidation phase, financial conditions may tighten, thereby dragging down economic growth. At the policy level, the Fed faces a dilemma, with CICC believing that the timing of interest rate cuts may be delayed until the second half of the year; the stimulating effect of tax cuts has been offset to some extent by tariff increases and the rise in residents' savings intentions, with the actual boost effect likely lower than expected. In this context, it is expected that the US economic growth will slow down, the risk premium in the capital market will tend to rise, and the logic of fund allocation may shift from seeking returns to focusing more on risk avoidance.