The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate in March unchanged is 97.3%.

date
06/03/2026
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by a total of 25 basis points by April is 12.5%, with a 87.3% probability of keeping rates unchanged, and a 0.3% probability of lowering rates by a total of 50 basis points. The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by a total of 25 basis points by June is 30.7%.