Citigroup: Copper prices may fall below $12,000 per ton due to risks in the Gulf region.

Citi said that if the energy supply and infrastructure in the Gulf region are interrupted for more than a week or two, copper prices could fall below $12,000 per ton in the short term. Analysts like Tom Mulqueen wrote in a report that if the crisis continues, investors may close their positions due to reduced expectations of a rate cut by the Fed and cyclical growth, making it "very possible" for copper prices to fall below $12,000 per ton in the coming weeks. Citi's baseline expectation is that the conflict will ease in the next few weeks, and copper prices are expected to rebound to $13,500 to $14,000 per ton within three months. Citi stated: "In the case of ongoing conflict, the overall base metals face a bearish outlook, due to concerns about energy supply shocks driving market repricing of rate cut expectations under inflation pressure, and supporting a stronger dollar." Given that aluminum and zinc are vulnerable to disruptions in transportation and rising production costs, their prospects are "slightly bullish".