Lates News

The Golden Report states that in the short term, the initial impact of geopolitical tensions on the stock market usually manifests as emotional impact and a jump in risk premiums, resulting in increased volatility and fund reallocation. In an environment of significant uncertainty, funds tend to shift from equity assets to safe-haven assets such as gold and US Treasury bonds; recent geopolitical conflicts have been related to oil-producing countries, impacting oil and other energy prices simultaneously on the rise; the stock market is facing temporary downward pressure. Historical data shows that in the first week of a conflict outbreak or escalation, the median increase in WTI crude oil and COMEX gold prices is about 1.9% and 0.4% respectively, with a probability of increase of about 61.5% for both; during the same period, the median increase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index is about -1%, with a probability of increase of only 25% and 23% respectively.