CITIC Securities: The situation in Iran is still changing rapidly, making it difficult to predict and deduce the final scenario in one go.

According to the research report from CITIC Securities, on February 28th local time, the situation in Iran entered a stage of military conflict escalation. As of 10:00 on March 1st Beijing time, the situation in Iran is still rapidly changing. CITIC Securities predicts that it is difficult to speculate and deduce the final scenario in one go, and it is more likely to continue to fluctuate following important signals. CITIC Securities believes that the potential changes in three key signals: U.S. military deployment, Iranian political change, and the scope of conflict spill over, will determine whether the global market impact will be an amplified version of the "Twelve-Day War" in June 2025, or move towards a more extreme scenario. To provide a reference for the potential market impact, CITIC Securities reviewed the market impact of eight major conflicts in the Middle East since 1970, which can be summarized as follows: hedging assets gold are preferred over the US dollar, oil prices are still seen in the long term supply and demand, the performance of US stocks is directly related to the extent of US military intervention and the trend of the war, and Chinese assets have no significant impact.