Barclays: Brent crude oil may rise to $80/barrel amid US-Iran tension.

Barclays Bank stated that the current high tension between the US and Iran may lead to a substantial supply interruption, causing the Brent crude oil price to rise to around $80 per barrel. The bank said, "Although an escalation of the situation may not necessarily lead to a supply interruption, and the risk premium of 3-5 dollars per barrel may quickly dissipate, in our view, even a daily supply interruption of 1 million barrels could further shake the market's widespread expectation of oversupply and push the Brent crude oil price to $80 per barrel." On Friday, oil prices rose by about 2%. As the US-Iran nuclear negotiations have not reached an agreement, traders are preparing for potential supply disruptions. The settlement price of Brent crude oil was reported at $72.48 per barrel. Barclays pointed out in a report, "Some argue against our view that geopolitical tensions continue to pose asymmetrical upward risks to oil prices, mainly based on recent historical experience - after such events, the related risk premium tends to gradually dissipate." On the other hand, Barclays stated that if there is no substantial supply interruption and Iran's response to any US strikes does not reach the level of its strong rhetoric, under unchanged conditions, oil prices may decrease by 3-5 dollars per barrel. The bank also warned that the current structural tightening of the oil market is characterized by low and declining spare capacity, tight inventories, and strong demand.