Experts respond to whether the escalation of the situation in the Middle East will trigger a global bear market: It depends on the scope of the conflict and its duration.

Will the escalation of the situation in the Middle East trigger a global bear market in the stock market? Tian Lihui, Dean of the Institute of Financial Development at Nankai University, said in an interview with reporters that the impact of the escalation of the situation in the Middle East on the global stock market is transmitted through a triple logic: first, risk premiums are repriced, and funds systematically flow out of risky assets; second, energy costs are impacted, as rising oil prices squeeze the profits of downstream enterprises; and third, monetary policy faces a dilemma, with high oil prices making it more difficult for central banks to lower interest rates, suppressing valuations. Whether it will trigger a global bear market depends on the scope of the conflict and its duration. Currently, it appears to be a structural shock rather than a systemic crisis, and markets in Europe and Asia, where oil imports are high, face greater adjustment pressure than the United States, leading to a phase of high volatility and differentiation in the market.