The American energy industry issues a warning: If the economy deteriorates, drilling activities will stop this year.

One year into Trump's second term, the United States' oil and natural gas production reached or approached historical highs, while gasoline prices averaged less than $3 per gallon. This favorable situation for consumers, however, has led to severe losses in the energy industry. A oil and gas operator responding to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank's 2025 fourth quarter energy survey stated that capital efficiency and returns are driving industry investment decisions. If economic conditions worsen, drilling and completion will cease in 2026. Another interviewee from the Dallas Fed survey pointed out that industry costs continue to rise. Coupled with the current decrease in oil prices compared to a year ago, many oil companies have already lost economic viability in their wells.