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According to the Wintermute research report, as the spot trading volume continues to shrink, leverage has become the main driving factor for short-term volatility. Without "structural buying pressure" (long-term funds that can absorb selling pressure), the market will experience sharp fluctuations at both ends of the long and short positions. From a technical perspective, BTC has found support near its 200-week moving average, which historically has been a position where bear market bottoms form. Wintermute believes that until clear signals reappear at the macro level, every rebound should be seen as an opportunity to reduce risk rather than a reason to chase gains. For cryptocurrencies, the key to returning to the uptrend will still depend on macro clarity. The 200-week moving average is still supporting, and the market has not shown any structural damage, which means that once macro uncertainty fades, the recovery speed may be faster than the current sentiment suggests. In the short term, we are in a range-bound, downward-biased state; the market is dominated by leverage, and $70,000 is still an important resistance level in the near term.
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