The month-on-month increase in US CPI in January was lower than expected, and stable labor force trends may cause the Federal Reserve to stand pat.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% from the previous month, slightly lower than the 0.3% increase in December, and also lower than the economists' expected 0.3%. After excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% increase in December. In terms of year-on-year data, the CPI increased by 2.4%, slowing down from December's 2.7%, mainly affected by the high base effect from last year; the core CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than 2.6% in December. The January report for the first time included seasonal adjustment factor updates reflecting price changes by 2025. Economists pointed out that the core CPI data in January often exceed expectations, as the Labor Department's model did not fully account for the one-time price increases at the beginning of the year. This month's increase may also reflect both this early-year effect and the transmission effects of Trump's widespread tariffs. Despite the slowdown in inflation, a stable labor market may keep the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged for a period of time. Economists predict that inflation may rise temporarily during the year, influenced by the transmission of import tariffs and depreciation of the US dollar last year.