CITIC Securities: AI CAPEX is expected to continue to be a relatively certain investment theme in the market in the first half of 2026.

CITIC Securities stated that in Q4 2025, the overall operating performance of North American technology giants continued to exceed market expectations. The growth rate of cloud business revenue further accelerated, driven by a tight supply-demand structure and rising storage chip prices, which significantly exceeded expectations for capital expenditure guidance in 2026. We have adjusted the forecast for the four major CSP CAPEX in 2026 to increase by 58% year-on-year, and AI CAPEX to increase by 117% year-on-year. However, investors' anxiety about the return on investment for massive AI spending is also increasing. The commercial efficiency of AI will be an important focus for the sustainability of future trends. We believe that in the current favorable macroeconomic environment, strong micro supply chain data, and the fear of missing out on AI strategies by technology giants, AI CAPEX is expected to continue to be one of the more certain investment themes in the market in H1 2026. In terms of strategy, we still recommend following a "watch as you go" logic and closely monitoring core variables such as US macroeconomic expectations, guidance from technology giants, progress in the AI industry, and financing progress of key companies in the primary market in the next 6 months.