Huatai Securities: Maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts before June, and will cut interest rates 1-2 times after the new Federal Reserve chairman takes office.

Huatai Securities research report stated that in January 2026, the United States added 130,000 non-farm jobs, higher than Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 65,000, with a cumulative downward revision of 17,000 for November and December. Looking ahead, the sustainability of January's non-farm data remains to be observed, but overall it confirms the gradual improvement in the employment market. The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts until June, with 1-2 cuts to come after the new Fed chairman takes office. The absolute level of new non-farm jobs in January reached a relatively high level of 130,000, but due to concentration in a few industries such as healthcare, sustainability needs to be observed. Considering the general improvement in economic growth momentum and initial claims data since January, the downside risks to the job market have significantly decreased. Looking ahead, with overall mild inflation and doubts about the sustainability of job data, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue to postpone rate cuts until the June meeting, emphasizing the observation of subsequent data for decision-making, and will cut interest rates 1-2 times after Warsh takes over as Fed chairman.