CITIC Securities: Short-term relief for the supply-demand contradiction of raw milk, the price of eliminating cows continues to rise.

According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the supply of dairy products is expected to increase slightly by 2025, with liquid milk demand under pressure and solid milk demand strong. In January 2026, the price of bulk milk has remained high, the short-term supply-demand imbalance of raw milk has eased, and leading dairy companies continue to expand their deep processing layout. Since January, the price of culling cows has risen to over 20 yuan/kg, leading livestock companies are increasing their beef cattle business layout, and since 2024, the cumulative disposal or over 10% of the inventory has been achieved. In 2026, there is downward pressure on the supply of beef cattle, taking into account the pace of the previous beef cattle cycle disposal and price rebound, it is predicted that there is still room for the live cattle price to increase in this current cycle. It is recommended to continue to be optimistic about the resonance of the beef cattle and raw milk cycle, and recommend leading companies in livestock breeding and the leading companies in the industry with the highest self-sufficiency rate of raw milk in the entire industry chain.