The market is betting that there is a near 80% probability of a government shutdown in the United States at the end of January.

After a deadly shooting in Minneapolis over the weekend, Democratic senators in the United States are calling for modifications to a major spending bill, and market traders are increasing their bets on another government shutdown. On Monday morning, local time, the Polymarket platform showed a 78% probability of a government shutdown by the end of January, a significant increase from less than 10% on Friday. Data shows that related contracts have attracted a total trading volume of about $7.5 million. Similar contracts on the Kalshi platform also show a sharp increase in the likelihood of a government shutdown on January 31. Prior to this shooting incident, many Democratic senators had expected to support the spending bill. However, several Democratic senators issued strong statements Saturday, indicating that they would not support any funding for the Department of Homeland Security.