CITIC Construction Investment: Infrastructure investment will slow down by 2025, and the effects of investment promotion policies will be evident in the first half of 2026.

The research report from CITIC Securities Investment pointed out that China's infrastructure investment in 2025 will reach 24.5 trillion yuan for the whole year, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous year, slowing down by 1.6 percentage points compared to the cumulative growth rate from January to November. The narrow definition of infrastructure investment growth for the whole year recorded -2.2%, slowing down by 1.1 percentage points compared to the cumulative growth rate from January to November. In key areas such as pipeline transportation, warehousing, and internet services, infrastructure investment maintained relatively fast growth, while industries such as ecological protection, water conservancy, road transportation, and public facilities saw larger declines in investment. Since the second half of 2025, a series of investment promotion policies have been implemented. Due to the lag in infrastructure investment from funding to the formation of physical work volume, key engineering and key areas of infrastructure investment are expected to accelerate implementation in the first half of 2026 with the promotion of new types of policy finance tools, ultra-long-term special national bonds, and additional special bonds.