CICC Securities: It is expected that the credit growth rate will still remain at around 7%-8% in 2026. The real improvement in the fundamentals of banks still needs to wait for further improvement in credit demand and economic expectations.

CITIC Construction Investment Research Report pointed out that government bonds are taking the lead in efforts + support weakened by high base, social financing growth year-on-year is less, in line with expectations. Marginal improvement in corporate credit lending in December, expected mainly due to banks' front-loading efforts in project reserves. Retail credit lending remains sluggish, expecting macroeconomic recovery and policy coordination to drive demand growth. M1 growth continues to fall under high base, M2 growth increases month-on-month, with the M2-M1 gap expanding to 4.7%. In 2026, the positive fiscal policy tone and relatively loose monetary policy will continue, government bonds will still be an important driver of social financing growth. It is expected that credit growth in 2026 will remain around 7%-8%, true improvement in the fundamentals of banks will still need to wait for further improvement in credit demand and economic expectations.