Institution: The probability of spot gold breaking through $5000 this year has exceeded 30%

The strategist of Daofu Investment Management Company pointed out in the report that based on recent price momentum and geopolitical dynamics, the probability of spot gold breaking through $5000 per ounce this year has now exceeded 30%. In 2026, gold will be in a favorable position, with supporting factors including a surge in global debt burden, the direction of the Federal Reserve policy, and potential volatility shocks. The strategist believes that the correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds in 2026 may remain positive, which increases the space for gold in the portfolio allocation as investors may seek liquidity substitutes. At the same time, demand for gold purchases by central banks around the world is expected to support physical demand, providing a stable anchor for the precious metals market.