Institution: The possibility of the Fed lowering interest rates in December is fifty-fifty.

T. Rowe Price's chief economist in the United States, Blerina Uruci, stated that due to significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve on whether to cut interest rates, combined with inflation concerns, the probability of a rate cut in December is roughly 50-50. Uruci pointed out that AI-related capital expenditure has significantly boosted the U.S. economy's growth by 2025, and a rate cut by the Federal Reserve will further promote economic health in 2026. However, inflation remains a major risk. With U.S. government debt exceeding 120% of GDP, along with inflationary policies such as tariffs, the Federal Reserve may struggle to reach its 2% inflation target. Therefore, Uruci believes that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates at all next year, unless there is an unexpected slowdown in economic growth, and predicts there will be no rate cut in the first half of 2026.