KPMG: Two prominent supports for China's economy in the fourth quarter, domestic demand expected to further recover.

One of the Big Four accounting firms, KPMG, stated that in the first three quarters of 2025, China's actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, making good progress towards the annual growth target of around 5%. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, there are two prominent supporting factors for the Chinese economy. Firstly, the performance of foreign trade and enterprises' operational expectations remain positive in the fourth quarter. With marginal improvements in the external trade environment, combined with the boost from the traditional peak season for overseas consumption in the fourth quarter, the total export volume is expected to remain resilient due to product competitiveness. At the same time, under the joint stimulation of online promotional activities and offline holiday consumption, the consumer market still has support. Secondly, recent macro policies have increased focus on domestic demand. With the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies, the fourth quarter's performance of domestic demand, represented by investment, is expected to see further recovery. In terms of fiscal policy, it is expected that infrastructure investment will see a recovery in the fourth quarter, and the introduction of policy financial tools will support the expansion of infrastructure investment. KPMG stated that in terms of monetary policy, the fourth quarter is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, but the space for total quantity-type tools such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates may be limited, with more focus on structural tools.