Shenwan Hongyuan bull market theory: The technology structure bull of 2025 is the "bull market 1.0" stage, and 2026H2 may start a comprehensive bull market.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities stated that the migration cycle of residents' asset allocation resonates with economic, policy, and industrial cycles, which is enough to drive a bull market. The cycle of relative changes in major countries' strength is much longer than the migration cycle of residents' asset allocation. Optimistic expectations at this level may drive the bull market to a level surpassing history. "Bull market 1.0" may peak in the spring of 2026: The trend of the AI industry still has depth, but the stock prices of A-share AI industry chain are in a long-term low valuation area. This is similar to the ChiNext in early 2014, food and beverage in early 2018, and new energy in early 2021. Historically, it usually requires an adjustment through a "skeptical bull market level" before continuing the industry trend market. "Bull market 2.0" may be a comprehensive bull: The clearing of mid-stream manufacturing supply may occur in 2026. It is expected that there will be a significant increase in sub-sectors where capacity growth rate is lower than demand growth rate, leading to an improvement in stock selection success from bottom-up. The effectiveness of the framework of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" may return in succession, with the validation of "policy bottom" in 2026 possibly triggering the start of the "Bull market 2.0". This bull market may ultimately be a "tech bull" or a "China influence enhancement bull", supported by the resonance of cyclical improvement in fundamentals, strengthening trends in emerging industries, migration of residents' asset allocations to equity, and the enhancement of China's global influence, resulting in a comprehensive bull market.