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According to the research report from CITIC Securities, the "Third Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" continues the direction of "moderate easing, structural optimization", with emphasis on strengthening confidence guidance, consolidating domestic demand foundation, deepening financial opening, and improving the interest rate system.
The report notes that there are many external uncertainties, and the foundation of economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. If domestic demand does not recover sufficiently, the report predicts a 10 basis points interest rate cut in the fourth quarter.
The People's Bank of China is implementing new measures to support individuals in repairing credit, reflecting financial support for the consumer system by extending from supply improvement to demand consolidation. For example, a one-time personal credit relief policy plan is set to be implemented early next year.
The report also highlights a more positive expression of the internationalization of the Renminbi, stating that the core focus of Renminbi internationalization will be on further opening up the capital account and improving the cross-border payment system.
Furthermore, the People's Bank of China is placing more emphasis on the internal coordination of the interest rate system, indicating a shift in monetary policy from quantitative control to structural optimization and transmission efficiency improvement.
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