CITIC Securities: It is estimated that China's macroeconomy will show a mild recovery trend under structural differentiation in 2026.

CITIC Securities releases the macro and policy outlook for 2026: Internationally, it is expected that the Sino-US relationship will maintain a stage of balance in 2026. In the long term, Trump is accelerating the "destructive reconstruction" of US hegemony. Chinese enterprises going global and the internationalization of the Renminbi are expected to accelerate. Domestically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the Twentieth Central Committee of the CPC has made top-level designs for economic and social development in the next five years. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the central axis of economic growth may reach around 4.8%, consolidating the foundation and pushing towards emerging industries. CITIC Securities believes that the policy focus is on building a modern industrial system, which is expected to achieve the effect of revitalizing the entire system through the success of individual policies. Technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and comprehensive rectification of "internal competition" are expected to achieve significant results. At the same time, the policy focus is on balancing the demand side to stimulate domestic demand, and service consumption will become a highlight. Looking ahead to 2026, it is expected that China's macro economy will show a moderate recovery trend under structural differentiation, with economic growth potentially starting low before rising, exports maintaining resilience, investment gradually picking up, and short-term pressure on consumer goods consumption. Looking ahead, challenges and opportunities exist in the international situation, and overall policy and reform progress domestically. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the Chinese economy is expected to clear up the skies for thousands of miles.