Goldman Sachs: Even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that Trump's tariffs are illegal, the overall impact on the trade situation is limited.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that in the oral debate section, multiple US Supreme Court justices questioned Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, indicating that the Supreme Court is increasingly likely to rule that the government's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is unconstitutional. The market now predicts that the probability of the Supreme Court maintaining tariffs has decreased by about 10 percentage points. The final ruling is expected to be announced between December 2025 and January 2026. If the Supreme Court overturns the legality of tariffs, the government may need several months to refund the approximately $115 billion to $145 billion in tariffs collected by then. However, the government is likely to seek other legal bases to reintroduce similar tariffs, which means that the overall trade impact will remain limited. Any tariff reduction measures may only apply to smaller trading partners, with no significant changes expected for major economies such as the European Union. However, refund processing and temporary tariff vacancies may cause short-term market volatility.