CICC: Wait for the expansion of policies in the catering, culture, and tourism industries to bring about a rebound in demand and a turning point in quantity and price.

The research report of CICC believes that the social service industry in 2025, after experiencing widespread price pressure and same-store decline in 2024, is showing signs of stabilization and bottoming out. Looking ahead to 2026, it is recommended to wait for the recovery of domestic demand and the expansion of policies to bring about a turning point in terms of quantity and price. Priority should be given to strong comprehensive leaders with self-growth momentum and high-growth segment leaders. It is also suggested to pay attention to industries and companies with strong cyclical attributes, potential turning points, and greater elasticity. In the food and beverage sector, attention should be paid to the disturbance caused by high base numbers and competitive landscape in 2026, but it is still optimistic about high-quality leading brands achieving relatively stable performance growth and gradually replacing individual and small-chain brands in the market. The resilience of the fast-food category is highlighted, and the same-store differentiation of sit-down dining brands continues. It is recommended to focus on high-growth companies with differentiation. The supply-demand relationship in the hotel sector still needs time to rebalance, and it is expected that with RevPAR continuously declining for two years, the supply growth rate will slow down but still show positive growth. The turning point for RevPAR turning positive may depend on the recovery of business demand, and it is optimistic about high-quality leaders being able to expand market share even in a downturn in the industry. The cyclical nature of the human service industry is strong, and the long-term trend of increasing penetration of flexible labor is on the rise. Duty-free sales are bottoming out, and attention should be paid to marginal changes such as the impact of the closure of Hainan and the expansion of local channels. Tourism faces price pressures and cost inputs, leading to slightly weaker growth stability, and attention should be paid to potential catalysts such as the progress of various scenic area projects and improvements in transportation.