What market reactions were stirred up by Trump's victory one year ago?
1. The status of the US dollar as a safe haven is shaky - Trump has stated that he will never support a weak dollar, but also said that a soft dollar "will make American companies earn a lot of money." Concerns in the market about the safe haven role of the US dollar have led to the US dollar index falling more than 7% year-to-date by 2025.
2. Triggering "Sell America" talk - Trump's "beautiful big plan" may exacerbate the US deficit, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, "Sell America" talk is heating up, US bonds are being sold off, and the yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds briefly exceeded 5%.
3. Tesla's "rollercoaster" - Musk endorsed Trump, causing Tesla's stock price to soar to a historic high of $488.5 after the election. However, a decrease in delivery volume caused Tesla's stock price to halve at one point, and a subsequent public falling out also caused Tesla to plummet.
4. "TACO" trade - meaning "Trump Always Chickens Out", is an abbreviation that became popular in financial markets in May. The market believes that Trump always threatens to impose tariffs, but then delays their implementation, allowing Wall Street to buy on dips.
5. Igniting the frenzy in the cryptocurrency world - Trump frequently shows favor to the cryptocurrency world, considering establishing a Bitcoin reserve, and signing the "Genius Act". In July, the total market value of cryptocurrency broke 4 trillion US dollars. In October, Bitcoin rose to a record high of $126,000.
6. Igniting the precious metals market - Trump's attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, tariff threats, combined with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, have triggered widespread global safe-haven demand, leading to gold repeatedly hitting new highs, and other precious metals such as silver following suit.
7. Big fluctuations in the US stock market and the AI boom - since Trump's victory, the S&P 500 index has soared 18%, but market volatility has also significantly increased. The "Big Seven Tech Giants" have contributed to over half of the total market gains, while other industries are struggling.
8. Heavy pressure on oil prices - Trump's slogan of "Drill, Baby, Drill" seeks support from energy giants, and upon taking office, he declared a national energy emergency. He also pressured OPEC+ to increase production externally, leading to international oil prices hitting a four-year low.
9. Defense stocks in Europe surge - Trump threatened to withdraw from NATO and his statements reducing aid to Ukraine have caused great concern in the EU. German Chancellor Merkel proposed a significant increase in defense spending and infrastructure investment at "any cost", sparking a surge in European defense stocks.
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