UBS economist: The Swiss National Bank needs more signs of deflation before further rate cuts.

date
04/11/2025
UBS economist Franziska Fischer said in a report that the Swiss National Bank may not cut interest rates again as she expects insufficient medium-term deflationary pressure. She pointed out: "Our interpretation is that the Swiss National Bank currently believes that the inflation outlook is consistent with the price stability target and believes that the impact of tariff shocks on economic growth will be mild." Fischer also noted that for the Swiss National Bank to consider negative interest rates, three conditions need to be met simultaneously: significant weakening of the Swiss economic outlook, further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank to narrow interest rate differentials, and continued pressure from the appreciation of the Swiss franc, all of which combined would significantly worsen the medium-term inflation outlook. Switzerland's inflation rate in October decreased slightly from 0.2% in September to 0.1%.