China-Thai Securities: Market victory rate solid, "structural bull" situation limits the odds space relatively.

The research report from Zhongtai Securities stated that the market odds indicator is at a relatively high level under the "structural bull" situation. The A-share securitization rate, valuation median, and structural bull level at the end of 2021 are equivalent, historically only surpassed during the comprehensive bull markets of 2009 and 2015; the ERP of the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 is lower than the previous two market highs, at the lower end of the rolling three-year average + 2STD range. Overall, under the "structural bull" situation, the market odds space is relatively limited, and according to historical experience, evolving into a comprehensive bull market will require a significant improvement in macroeconomic expectations or further expansion of liquidity.