U.S. October ADP private payrolls rose by 86,000, beating expectations, with services alone supporting growth, while pay growth for job-changers was the fastest since March 2024.

According to the ADP National Employment Report jointly released by ADP Research and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, U.S. private sector employment rose by 86,000 in October, above the market expectation of 65,000. However, September's job gains were revised down from the initially reported 90,000 to 86,000, matching October's pace and making the overall momentum assessment more neutral. By industry, growth was highly concentrated in services. The service sector added 82,000 jobs, with trade, transportation and utilities contributing the most (+39,000), education and health +28,000, leisure and hospitality +19,000, and financial activities +15,000; however, professional and business services shed 27,000 jobs, the third consecutive monthly decline. The goods-producing sector added only 4,000 jobs, with construction +13,000, manufacturing -1,000, and mining -8,000. By establishment size, small businesses added 28,000 jobs, medium-sized businesses 33,000, and large businesses 24,000, a relatively balanced distribution. On pay, according to ADP Pay Insights, the median year-over-year pay increase for private employees was 3.2% in October, with job-changers at 4.8% and job-stayers at 3.0%; total compensation rose 4.7% year over year. "Employers of all sizes were hiring last month. Our data suggests job-changers were drawn not only by higher base pay but also by a combination of factors including bonuses, overtime opportunities, and longer hours," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. "Taken together, these workers' earnings growth was the fastest since March 2024." The ADP report is an independent estimate based on payroll data from more than 26 million private employees and is not equivalent to the official nonfarm payrolls data. The official U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 6 (U.S. Eastern Time).