Auto industry October sales: "One superpower, multiple strong players" main landscape, exports become growth engine

Title context: Auto industry October sales: "One superpower, multiple strong players" main landscape, exports become growth engine Text: The same "Silver October" brings different joys and sorrows for automakers. Some companies delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in a single month for consecutive months, while others are still hovering near the 10,000-unit threshold, but "variables" still exist in the auto industry landscape. It was learned that automakers recently released their October scorecards in a concentrated manner. BYD Company Limited (01211) held an absolutely leading position with 492,000 vehicles, while Leapmotor (09863) led the new forces by a wide margin with 106,100 vehicles. XPeng and Xiaomi both stood at the 50,000-vehicle level, and other new forces are also striving to catch up. "One superpower, multiple strong players" remains the main landscape, but this monthly fluctuation may mean the elimination round has entered a critical stage. Industry pressure is gradually emerging. According to estimates by the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in October were about 1.6 million units, down 1.1% month on month and down 28.9% year on year, of which retail sales of new energy vehicles were about 1.07 million units, with a penetration rate of about 66.9%. Under a high base and high penetration rate, the growth rate of new energy vehicles has clearly slowed. Leaders are expanding while laggards are engaged in intense internal competition, and industry sales divergence is prominent. So who will be the final winner? "One superpower, multiple strong players" main landscape, multiple tiers striving to catch up Under the "one superpower, multiple strong players" main landscape, the leader's performance remains stable. BYD Company Limited sold 490,200 vehicles in October, up 11% year on year, and sold 3.6217 million vehicles in the first 10 months, maintaining the top sales position by brand, of which sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 483,100 units, up 10.6% year on year, placing it in an absolutely leading position. Many traditional automakers are accelerating their new energy transition, with penetration rates generally exceeding 60%. SAIC's new energy vehicle sales in October were 258,600 units, up 25.12% year on year, with a penetration rate of 60.14%. Geely's battery electric vehicle sales were 140,800 units, up 43% year on year, and its penetration rate, together with plug-in hybrids, rose sharply to 69.3%. Great Wall Motor's new energy vehicle sales were 49,500 units, with a penetration rate of 41.1%. In addition, GAC and Changan have not yet announced sales, but based on the first three quarters, their penetration rates both exceeded 60%. Leapmotor was the most stable winner among the new forces in October, with global deliveries of 106,100 vehicles in October, up 51% year on year, marking four consecutive months of monthly sales above 100,000 vehicles. Cumulative deliveries in the first 10 months were 773,000 vehicles, up 65.9% year on year, making it the brand with the best combination of scale and growth. As of the end of October, Leapmotor's cumulative global deliveries exceeded 1.9 million vehicles, and its 2 millionth complete vehicle is expected to roll off the line in November. XPeng and Xiaomi both belong to the "Xiao" generation and both reached the 50,000-vehicle level. XPeng delivered 50,200 vehicles in October, up 19.6% year on year, a record high for a single month, of which overseas deliveries were 13,326 units, up 166% year on year. Xiaomi delivered more than 50,000 vehicles in October, exceeding 50,000 in a single month for the first time this year. The "Pengcheng" extended-range series launched in September contributed more than 20,000 vehicles in its first full delivery month, becoming a second growth curve beyond pure electric vehicles. Data source: publicly disclosed data From the competitive landscape, the "one superpower, multiple strong players" structure is clear across multiple tiers: BYD Company Limited is the overall industry leader; traditional automakers such as SAIC and Geely form the main force, supporting overall new energy vehicle sales; among the new forces, Leapmotor leads the way, Xiaomi and XPeng are accelerating to catch up, while NIO and Li Auto are seeking breakthroughs in the high-end market above RMB300,000. The core of industry competition has shifted from "whether there is a new energy vehicle" to "who can simultaneously achieve the ultimate in configuration, intelligent driving, and cost within the same price band." In fact, as growth slows and room to survive narrows, automakers are each demonstrating their unique strengths and leveraging core advantages. Among the new forces with strong sales, Leapmotor continues to improve product strength through full-domain in-house development and uses extreme value for money to build good cars that are not expensive, winning owner recognition. Xiaomi has the dual identity of technology and traffic, building cars for young people, with a strong fan effect. XPeng uses intelligent driving as its selling point, developing its own intelligent driving technology and extending it to the RMB100,000-150,000 price segment. Exports become growth engine, Leapmotor still leads the new forces Domestic new energy vehicle penetration is high, but overseas new energy development is relatively slow and penetration is low. Exports represent a huge incremental market for the industry and have also become the new battlefield for major brands in the final round. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first nine months of 2026, domestic vehicle sales were 15.066 million units, down 22.4% year on year, while vehicle exports were 8.205 million units, up 65.8% year on year, of which new energy vehicle exports were 4.006 million units, up 1.3 times year on year, accounting for nearly 50%. On a monthly basis, new energy vehicle exports in September were 571,000 units, up 1.6 times year on year, accounting for 54.2% of exports and exceeding half for four consecutive months. Automakers' export volumes all maintained high growth trends. Chery was the export leader, with October exports of 194,700 vehicles. BYD Company Limited followed closely with exports of 170,200 vehicles. Geely had the most eye-catching export growth, with exports of 107,200 vehicles, up 158% year on year. Among new force brands, Leapmotor still maintained its leading trend, with export volume remaining first, while XPeng made the strongest push, with October export deliveries of 13,326 units, surging 166% year on year, and the share of overseas sales rising to 26.5%. There are also two approaches to going overseas. Chery and BYD Company Limited pursue scale, rapidly increasing volume through complete vehicle exports and overseas factories. Great Wall, Wuling, and Leapmotor take root locally, proceeding step by step through CKD, assembly, and plant construction. The former grows faster, while the latter has more room to maneuver in the face of changes in tariffs and market access. Europe is the market with the most certain incremental growth and also the most competitive. Data from Cui Dongshu shows that in the first nine months of 2026, China's vehicle exports to the EU were 1.83 million units, already exceeding the full-year total of last year. In September alone, they surged 128% year on year, with cumulative growth of 87%. By structure, plug-in hybrid exports soared 372%, battery electric vehicles still grew nearly twofold despite high tariffs, and conventional hybrids grew 91%. Tariffs have raised the cost of complete vehicle exports, but have pushed Chinese automakers into localization: the CKD shares of Leapmotor, Great Wall, and SAIC-GM-Wuling reached 34.6%, 41.9%, and 42.1%, respectively. Shipping parts first, then local assembly, and finally building plants has become a realistic path to bypass tariffs. For automakers, exports have changed from "icing on the cake" to "key to the final." However, for every one fewer vehicle sold domestically, nearly two more need to be sold overseas to make up for it, and for every additional vehicle sold overseas, companies still face the triple erosion of tariffs, exchange rates, and localization investment. Exports can save scale, but not profit. The real watershed is the localization rate and per-vehicle gross margin. In this regard, Leapmotor's successful profit model has provided a reference template for the industry. "Intelligent driving + Siasun Robot&Automation" advance in parallel, institutions prefer leaders Intelligent driving remains the high ground for automakers to win. Huawei Qiankun, XPeng's second-generation VLA, Li Auto's Mach M100 chip, and Xiaomi's in-house large modelautomakers are all increasing R&D investment and gaining competitive advantages by equipping new models, while the intelligent arms race has moved from "whether it exists" to "whether it works well." 2026 is called the first year of L3 mass production. In the first quarter, the first batch of L3 autonomous driving production vehicles with special license plates appeared on designated highways and urban expressways in Beijing and Chongqing. Changan Deepal SL03 and BAIC Arcfox Alpha S took the lead in launching commercial pilots on Chongqing's Inner Ring and designated sections in Beijing. Two mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles will be implemented on January 1, 2027. L3 safety requirements, data recording, and test methods have been written into national standards, while the boundaries of rights and responsibilities are defined by pilot notices. Policies are accelerating the arrival of L3 and also driving intelligent driving into lower price bands. Urban NOA, automatic parking, and cockpit-driving integration are moving down to the mainstream RMB150,000-200,000 price range, and above RMB200,000, intelligent driving is even more of a standard feature. However, intelligent R&D is a cost that is easily overlooked. Computing power, lidar, data compliance, and OTA recallseach one erodes gross margin. When automakers make intelligent driving standard rather than optional, the cost shifts from "paid by users" to "paid by automakers," which is one of the reasons new forces are still generally loss-making after the price war has continued until now. It is worth noting that automakers are opening up a new growth curve, namely the Siasun Robot&Automation business. Among traditional automakers, represented by BYD Company Limited, the Siasun Robot&Automation project code-named "Yao Shun Yu" has iterated to its seventh-generation prototype and entered the product implementation stage. Among new force brands, Xiaomi, XPeng, and Leapmotor are all increasing their layouts. Among them, XPeng's Siasun Robot&Automation business completed its first round of financing of more than US$900 million in August this year, with a post-investment valuation of more than US$6.3 billion. Overseas brand Tesla's Optimus has started early production on a high-capacity production line at the Fremont factory, and the first batch of Siasun Robot&Automation meeting mass-production quality standards has officially rolled off the line. Overall, the October sales rankings convey three signals: First, the industry's main landscape is stable, but variables remain. BYD Company Limited and Leapmotor maintain leading positions in their respective markets that are difficult to shake, traditional automakers are accelerating penetration rate improvements, other new forces are also striving to catch up, and some brands are struggling to survive in the cracks. Second, exports have become a growth engine, the share of new energy vehicle exports is rising, and Europe is the mainstream export market. Third, intelligent driving L3 is gradually being implemented, and the Siasun Robot&Automation business is opening a new growth curve. The third signal has a relatively small impact on automakers but the highest expectations. In the capital market, automaker valuations have retreated significantly since April this year, with a relatively solid bottom. In the past two trading days, the new energy vehicle sector rose more than 4%, with stocks generally rising. Under the "one superpower, multiple strong players" main landscape, all are at the bottom of valuations, and institutions still prefer industry leaders.