Preview of US Stock Market | All three stock index futures rise together; WTI falls below $100; midterm elections, Apple earnings, and nonfarm payrolls take turns appearing this week.

Premarket Market Moves 1. On Monday, November 2, in the US premarket, all three major US stock index futures rose together. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.61%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.54%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.80%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.21%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 0.05%, France's CAC 40 was up 0.33%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.28%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil futures were down 4.50% at $99.43 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures were down 4.32% at $108.53 per barrel. Market News After the tech stock selloff, US stocks face another key week: midterm elections, major earnings, and nonfarm payrolls take turns appearing. US mega-cap tech earnings have repeatedly fallen short of expectations, triggering a sharp selloff in the tech sector, but the market is more inclined to view it as an "expectation reset" rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. This week, market focus shifts to the US midterm elections, the October nonfarm payrolls report, and earnings from heavyweight stocks including Apple Inc. (AAPL.US); at the same time, after Binance suffered the largest crypto hack in history, trust repair and regulatory direction in the crypto industry have also become new points of attention. Breakthrough in US-Iran talks, international oil prices fall below $100. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on November 1 that Iran has agreed to a "two-day plan" after the US fulfills its commitments, the Strait of Hormuz will resume navigation the next day, and Iran-US negotiations will restart accordingly; mediators including Qatar are pushing to compress the timeline to within five days. Previously, Netanyahu urged Trump to "immediately resume the war against Iran" after the midterm elections, but Trump prefers to let the negotiations unfold fully. Progress in the talks eased concerns about crude supply disruptions, with WTI crude briefly falling below $100 per barrel and Brent down nearly 4%, removing the inflation burden from risk assets. OPEC+ keeps December output unchanged, with no additional supply for now. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a statement on November 1 that seven major OPEC+ oil-producing countries decided to keep current crude output unchanged in December. Media said producers are still dealing with export disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and will not make further policy adjustments before next year; each producer needs to complete a capacity assessment in the fourth quarter to determine 2027 quotas. OPEC+ increased output month by month from April to September this year and paused increases from October; the decision to maintain the status quo, together with progress in US-Iran talks, pushed down the oil price risk premium, but repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation remain the core variable. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. raises oil price forecasts, warning of heightened supply risks. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. raised its oil price forecasts for the end of this year and for 2027, citing rising risks to crude supply. As the Middle East conflict has lasted for months, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has joined other banks in raising oil price forecasts. Analysts led by Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby noted in a report that Brent crude is expected to reach $105 per barrel in December, up from the previous forecast of $90; the average price for next year is expected to be $88 per barrel, 10% higher than the previous forecast. The analysts also raised their price forecast for WTI crude. US midterm elections approach, with Tuesday's vote raising liquidity and policy risks. The US midterm elections will be held local time on November 3 (Tuesday), and the market is watching how control of Congress will affect fiscal, regulatory, and industry policy going forward. Analysts noted that the election injects headline and liquidity risk between the Reserve Bank of Australia decision and Wednesday's market open, but does not add scheduled data. In the last full trading week before the election, investors tend to reduce directional bets, volatility in tech and high-beta sectors may be amplified by election uncertainty, and the election itself becomes a source of short-term disturbance. The AI financing race spreads to Japan, with yen bond issuance hitting a record $16 billion. According to reports, as AI hyperscalers set off a global financing boom, overseas companies and institutions have begun seeking funding support from Japanese investors. Daiwa Securities statistics show that from April to September this year, the scale of yen bonds issued by foreign entities hit a record high. The total amount of yen bonds issued by foreign institutions in Japan and yen bonds issued overseas was about 2.5 trillion yen (about $15.9 billion), up 160% year on year, exceeding the previous record of 2.1 trillion yen set from October 2018 to March 2019. Individual Stock News Demand remains resilient ahead of the holiday season, Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A (EL.US) raises annual guidance. Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A on Monday raised its annual sales and profit forecasts, betting that demand for its premium skincare and fragrance brands will remain resilient ahead of the holiday season, while the chief executive's year-long turnaround measures are driving growth. Despite economic uncertainty, consumers remain keen to buy skincare and fragrance products, which boosted the company's luxury skincare and fragrance sales. As part of Chief Executive's Beauty Reimagined strategy, Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A has been focused on accelerating innovation, expanding into new channels and markets, using artificial intelligence for consumer insights and marketing, increasing consumer-facing investment, streamlining operations, and cutting costs through job reductions. The company expects organic sales to grow 4% to 5.5% in fiscal 2027, above the previous expectation of 3% to 5%. The company also expects full-year adjusted earnings per share of $3.20 to $3.45, above the previous expectation of $3.10 to $3.35. Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) to release fourth-quarter results after the bell, with new CEO's first appearance in focus. Apple Inc. will report fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results for the period ended September after the US market close on Monday and hold its first earnings call since new CEO John Ternus succeeded Cook. The market consensus expects revenue of about $113.4 billion (up 10.7% year on year) and adjusted earnings per share of about $1.99-$2.00 (up 8%-11% year on year); iPhone revenue is expected at about $56.5 billion (up 15% year on year), and services revenue at about $31.6 billion. The company reclaimed the "king of stocks" title from NVIDIA Corporation ($4.93 trillion) last Friday with a market value of $5.03 trillion, but the erosion of hardware gross margins from memory price increases and holiday-quarter guidance are the biggest focal points of this earnings report. Musk: Space-based AI computing capacity additions expected to exceed ground-based by end-2028. Elon Musk expects that by the end of 2028, the monthly scale of AI computing deployed in space may exceed new ground-based computing capacity, with the gap widening further in 2029. Previously, Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire predicted that SpaceX (SPCX.US) revenue would rise from $51.5 billion in 2026 to $731 billion in 2028, but that forecast faces uncertainties such as supply chains and policy. Musk said the outside world may be severely underestimating SpaceX's capital efficiency. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) sees sharp growth in Nordic new car registrations in October. According to data provided by Swedish automotive industry organization Mobility Sweden, Norwegian data statistics agency OFV, and Danish vehicle data platform bilstatistik.dk, Tesla, Inc.'s registrations surged 248% in Sweden in October, rose 131% in Norway, and increased 34% in Denmark. The rebound was helped by a lower comparison base in the same period last year, higher fuel prices, government incentives, and continued growth in electric vehicle demand. Registration data for the UK and Germany, Europe's two largest auto markets, are expected later this week. Tesla, Inc. previously said its passenger vehicle order backlog at the end of the third quarter reached the highest level in four years. Anthropic (ANT.US) plans to sell $3.5 billion of shares to Japanese investors in IPO. Documents show that artificial intelligence company Anthropic will sell up to 552.9 billion yen (about $3.5 billion) of shares to Japanese investors during its US listing process. The documents said the funds raised from issuing new shares to Japanese investors will be used to supplement working capital and pay operating expenses and capital expenditures. The documents did not disclose the size or valuation of the IPO. Reuters previously reported that some investors discussed a valuation for Anthropic of about $1.5 trillion. Alphabet (GOOGL.US) launches its second euro bond issuance this year. Alphabet Inc. Class C parent Alphabet launched its second euro bond issuance this year, planned in seven tranches, in another move by a major tech company to raise funds for artificial intelligence investment. According to a person familiar with the matter, Alphabet's bonds range in maturity from 2 to 19 years; the initial price guidance for the shortest-maturity fixed-rate notes is about 60 basis points above the mid-swap rate, and the spread on the longest-maturity bonds is about 205 to 210 basis points. Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft are managing the bond sale, which is expected to be priced later on Monday. Meta (META.US) cooperates with a Chinese company to develop a humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation? Fourier responds. Recently, reports said Meta has cooperated with Chinese Siasun Robot&Automation company Fourier to build a humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation prototype in about three months, and the two sides are already developing a second version. This Siasun Robot&Automation is called Max internally at Meta, weighs about 48 kilograms, and is used for internal research and experiments. Meta Siasun Robot&Automation product vice president Li-Chen Miller also stayed at Fourier's Shanghai factory for nearly two months. In response, Fourier founder and CEO Gu Jie said it was not convenient to comment at this time. Key Economic Data and Event Preview Beijing time 22:45: US October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final reading Beijing time 23:00: US October ISM Manufacturing PMI Beijing time 00:15 the next day: 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks Earnings Preview Tuesday morning: Apple Inc., Palantir (PLTR.US), ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON.US), Roku (ROKU.US) Tuesday premarket: Koninklijke Philips N.V. Sponsored ADR (PHG.US), Shopify (SHOP.US), Pfizer Inc. (PFE.US), Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP.US)