Citi: Macau October Gaming Revenue In Line with Expectations; November Forecast Cut to MOP20.5 Billion

Citi issued a research report stating that Macau's October 2026 gaming revenue was MOP21.68 billion, down 10% year-on-year, broadly in line with the bank's estimate of MOP21.5 billion and the market expectation of MOP21.7 billion; the bank cut its November gaming revenue forecast from MOP21 billion to MOP20.5 billion, implying a 3% year-on-year decline. October gaming revenue equates to approximately MOP699 million per day, about 82% of the October 2019 level. The bank noted that industry sources indicate the implied daily gaming revenue run-rate over the final six days of October was approximately MOP672 million, about 11% higher than the run-rate of approximately MOP604 million from October 12 to 25. The bank is encouraged by the improvement in the month-end run-rate and remains cautiously optimistic about the gradual recovery in players' gaming appetite following China's offshore tax issue; key November events include W Gala at Galaxy Arena and "2026 Super Concert: The Singer Returns" at The Venetian Arena, which may provide additional support for visitor arrivals to Macau. However, the bank remains conservative, as the 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting held in Shenzhen on November 18-19 may temporarily divert some gaming demand; based on the above forecast, November gaming revenue equates to a daily run-rate of approximately MOP683 million.