Commercial space sector heat rises: Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (02865) jumps 18% in a single day; can its positioning in a booming track bring a value re-rating?

Under the catalysis of favorable policies, the commercial space concept sector has once again begun to attract market investors' attention. GMTEight noted that on October 29, commercial space concept stocks in both the Hong Kong and A-share markets rose in bulk. Among the leading gainers, Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (02865) H-shares surged immediately after the market opened that day, rising more than 20% at one point during the session. As of the close that day, the stock reported HK$12.52, up 18.45%. At the same time, Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology's A-shares also strongly hit the daily limit-up. The counter-trend activity in the commercial space sector may be related to several recent favorable news items. A few days ago, six departments in Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Satellite Internet Industry Innovation and Development Action Plan (2027-2030)," proposing that by 2030, Shanghai's core satellite internet industry scale will exceed RMB80 billion, the total number of in-orbit satellites will exceed 3,000, more than 100 high-quality enterprises and other entities will be cultivated, and "100+ benchmark demonstration applications" will be created. Meanwhile, at the 2026 Satellite Application Conference on October 28, Wei Ran, founder of Shanghai Xuntian Qianhe Space Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Xuntian Qianhe), a subsidiary of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology, said that "commercial space likely no longer needs to go through the 'Ford moment,' but will directly leap into the 'Tesla moment.'" He believes that industrialization and intelligentization in commercial space are currently occurring simultaneously, which gives it the conditions to leap directly. Favorable policies have rekindled the enthusiasm of funds to go long. Against this backdrop, the performance on the 29th can be said to have demonstrated to the market the stock price elasticity of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology. It is reported that in the commercial space field, Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology has formed a complete business layout of "satellite energy + whole-satellite manufacturing + space computing constellation," and related businesses are being advanced in an orderly manner. Frequent favorable policies, a performance inflection point looming In fact, beyond the catalysis from news, Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology's own fundamentals have also shown signals of approaching an inflection point. According to the company's recently disclosed third-quarter report, in the first three quarters of this year, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company were RMB5.223 billion and -RMB428 million, respectively. Although neither recorded positive growth on a year-on-year basis, looking only at the third quarter, the company's revenue was RMB2.042 billion, up 1.17% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37.38%; during the same period, net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was -RMB175 million, also narrowing its loss on a quarter-on-quarter basis. In terms of the main photovoltaic business, policy support is continuing to intensify at the current stage. Public information shows that on October 16, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology issued an announcement to publicly solicit opinions on the revision of the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export in China," and to implement temporary registration management for the export of related technologies. Among them, the photovoltaic field covers three major segmentspolysilicon manufacturing, wafer manufacturing, and cell manufacturingwith a total of 12 key technologies proposed to be classified into the two categories of prohibited exports and restricted exports. The scope of technology management also includes key and core equipment carrying related technologies. In this regard, institutions believe that as export controls on photovoltaic equipment tighten, the scarcity of overseas cell capacity will be further highlighted, which will be conducive to domestic cell exports and is expected to have a positive impact on Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology's overseas sales. Similarly, the draft for comments on the "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Standard Conditions (2026 Edition)" recently issued by the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentions average conversion efficiency thresholds for newly built and expanded cells: TOPCon no lower than 26.2%, HJT no lower than 26%, and xBC no lower than 26.6%. In terms of impact, the author believes that stricter industry standard conditions are expected to accelerate the clearing out of outdated capacity in the industry, and Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology, as a leading photovoltaic cell enterprise, is also expected to benefit from this. In addition to continuously exploring innovative photovoltaic application scenarios, Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology is also actively laying out emerging business areas based on its own technology and industrial accumulation. At present, Jietai Aerospace and Xuntian Qianhe under Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology are respectively expanding into space photovoltaics and satellites. According to the Xuntian Qianhe official account, as of September 20, Xuntian Qianhe had successfully delivered 14 satellites, of which 6 have space-based computing capabilities. After a deep stock price adjustment, will it greet a rebound with a lighter load? Looking back at the performance of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology's H-shares since listing in May last year, it can probably be described as full of twists and turns. After the stock price hit a record high in March this year, Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology underwent a stock price correction lasting as long as half a year. From a technical perspective, after the previous continuous decline, before this round of market movement started, Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology's trading had already shown obvious characteristics of shrinking volume, which may indicate that bearish forces are nearing exhaustion. After extremely low volume and prices, with warm news on the message front and signs of quarter-on-quarter improvement in its own fundamentals, the convergence of multiple factors may be precisely the core reason why Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology can launch a violent rebound at present. However, over a medium-to-long time dimension, the main factor determining Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology's subsequent stock price trend is expected to remain whether its layout in the commercial space field can truly open up a new growth phase for it. In terms of overseas progress, SpaceX's first profitable quarter can in a sense be said to have validated the commercial closed loop of commercial space. Earlier, in late August, SpaceX and Nvidia announced the joint development of the first-generation Starmind AI satellite (peak computing load 250kW) space-optimized version of the Vera Rubin NVL72 system, with plans for its first launch in Q4 next year and large-scale deployment by 2028. Shortly afterward, on September 16, SpaceX supplemented Starmind engineering information to the FCC, and on October 1, Google conducted space TPU testing through the SpaceX Transporter-18 mission. This series of signals marks that space computing has entered the factory verification stage. With such precedents already in place, whether domestic commercial space will, as predicted by frontline industry entrepreneurs, directly leap into the "Tesla moment" is obviously an issue worthy of continuous close tracking. In terms of the relevant capability foundation, as mentioned at the beginning of the article, Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology has formed a full-chain layout of "satellite energy + whole-satellite manufacturing + space computing constellation," which is expected to make it a beneficiary with relatively high certainty in the industry's transition from startup to maturity. But it must be said frankly that the development of commercial space still faces extremely high technical barriers, long-cycle capital investment, and challenges in validating business models. Although overseas giants have achieved phased breakthroughs in areas such as space computing, domestic commercial space's path from technology research and development and in-orbit verification to ultimately realizing large-scale constellation networking and commercial monetization will by no means happen overnight. As for companies in the industry chain, when and in what manner they can share in how much of the market dividend requires even more long-term tracking. Looking back at Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology's stock price trend, after the previous continuous adjustment, from a trading perspective, Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology, now with a lighter load, already has the basic conditions for a rebound. Coupled with the emergence of a performance inflection point and the intensive implementation of favorable policies, these positive factors together created the violent rebound in the company's stock price on the 29th. However, it may still be too early to immediately assert whether this is a rebound or a reversal; but considering that the main business already has recovery signals and that commercial space is a long-slope, thick-snow track, over the long term Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology may still be a "potential stock" with long-term attention value.