Microsoft's capital expenditure "misses expectations"! "Compute landlords" see stock prices fall collectively in after-hours trading.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) released its latest quarterly report on Wednesday, US Eastern Time. Although revenue from its cloud computing business Azure surged 48% year-over-year, its capital expenditure figures came in below market expectations, raising concerns that cloud compute leasing providers (CRWV.US) and Nebius (NBIS.US), which serve as its compute infrastructure partners, may see a slowdown in data center capacity delivery progress. Following the announcement, shares of the related companies fell collectively in after-hours trading. **Capital expenditure misses expectations, "compute landlords" under stock price pressure** The earnings report showed that Microsoft Corporation's total capital expenditure and finance leases for the quarter reached US$45.2 billion, up approximately 30% year-over-year, but below the analyst average estimate of US$50.7 billion compiled by StreetAccount. The market views this gap as indicating that Microsoft Corporation's compute infrastructure partners will take longer to deliver data center capacity. Microsoft Corporation has continued to make large-scale investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, with its reliance on cloud compute leasing providers particularly prominent: at the end of last year, Microsoft Corporation signed a compute cooperation agreement worth nearly US$20 billion with Nebius, with the cooperation period extending into the 2030s; at the same time, Microsoft Corporation is also one of CoreWeave's important major customers. After the earnings release, shares of both CoreWeave and Nebius fell nearly 5% in after-hours trading, while IREN dropped about 3%. Oracle Corporation, which had surged 11% during the regular trading session that day on strong long-term revenue guidance, also gave back some of its gains after Microsoft Corporation's earnings were published, closing down 3%. It is worth noting that Azure revenue grew 48% year-over-year, far exceeding the growth rate of capital expenditure. Microsoft Corporation explained in its earnings presentation materials: "Revenue growth outpacing capital expenditure stems from timing differences between receipts and payments, as well as a decline in the proportion of finance leases." **Shadow of tightening bond market looms, industry consolidation expectations heat up** The Neocloud sector has seen turbulent market performance recently. As interest rates rise, the market worries that future bond issuance financing costs will be too high and that lenders may withdraw, with shares of several related companies experiencing significant volatility in recent weeks. It is worth noting that industry pessimism is also intensifying. Recently, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk posted on social platform X over the weekend predicting that more than 200 cloud compute leasing providers will collapse, stating that "for any company without substantive revenue independent of AI data centers, the bond market has almost completely closed off financing channels." Musk's SpaceX currently leases AI infrastructure to Anthropic and Alphabet Inc. Class C. Last Monday, analysts at research firm Gartner told CNBC that they expect 80% of cloud compute leasing providers will be acquired, consolidated, or completely cease operations by 2030. **Short-term rebound temporarily ends, industry divergence intensifies** After experiencing a deep pullback this month, the Neocloud sector saw a modest rebound earlier this week CoreWeave rose 18% over the past three trading days, leading the sector. Analysts at Wolfe Research said in a report on Tuesday that they expect the stock could rebound to the mid-US$75 range. However, as of Wednesday's close, CoreWeave was at US$63.93, and the after-hours decline following Microsoft Corporation's earnings release has dampened the momentum of this rebound. On Wednesday morning, Oracle Corporation's strong long-term revenue forecast briefly injected confidence into the infrastructure industry narrative the company said it would return to positive free cash flow in the second half of the next fiscal year. But as both Microsoft Corporation and Alphabet delivered capital expenditure figures below expectations, market sentiment quickly turned. Alphabet (parent company of Alphabet Inc. Class C), which also released earnings on Wednesday, reported capital expenditure of US$51.36 billion, also below the market expectation of US$55.09 billion. The spending data from the two cloud giants, combined with pessimistic forecasts from Musk and Gartner, have made financing and consolidation risks in the cloud compute infrastructure industry a focal point of market attention.