HK Stock Concept Tracker | Global gas turbine capacity is tight! Overseas production schedules extended to 2031; domestic gas turbines welcome a good opportunity to go global (with concept stocks)

Title context: HK Stock Concept Tracker | Global gas turbine capacity is tight! Overseas production schedules extended to 2031; domestic gas turbines welcome a good opportunity to go global (with concept stocks) Text: Driven by the data center construction boom, manufacturing expansion, and the electrification transition, global demand for gas-fired power generation has surged, making it difficult for manufacturers such as Mitsubishi, GE Vernova, and Siemens Energy to meet demand. Mitsubishi Power said demand for gas turbines has exceeded manufacturing capacity, causing delivery waiting times to lengthen continuously, with delivery schedules already extended to 2031. McKinsey estimates that global data center power demand will grow from 82GW in 2025 to 219GW in 2030, of which AI data centers will account for about 156GW, or more than 70%. Assuming that 30% of new power demand relies on gas turbines, data centers alone will add about 41GW of gas turbine demand from 2025 to 2030. In North America, a large number of AIDC projects are constrained by the long expansion cycle of the public power grid and the aging of grid equipment, and the self-built power plant model is rising rapidly. Gas turbines have become an important technical route for primary and backup power supplies for overseas AI data centers. In July, Musk acquired mobile gas turbine and diesel generator set operator APR Energy for about US$1 billion; the latter has more than 1GW of trailer-mounted gas and diesel generator sets. The acquisition will directly support the future massive power demand of xAI's Colossus supercomputer in Memphis, Tennessee, providing stable power assurance for its AI computing infrastructure. In addition, SpaceX has started construction of a large gas turbine blade foundry next to the Starlink factory in Bastrop, Texas, which will bring gas turbine online time forward by 18 months. SpaceX's choice to directly enter the gas turbine supply chain reflects that large AI infrastructure projects are resolving energy-side capacity constraints through vertical integration. The United States accounts for 45% of global data center power consumption. International energy research firm Wood Mackenzie estimates that the United States will add about 63GW of gas-fired power generation capacity by 2030, more than double the net increase over the past five years. Soochow said that the acceleration of AI data center construction in North America and the long expansion cycle of the local power grid, together with tight capacity and delayed production schedules at overseas gas turbine and cooling equipment manufacturers, have made power and temperature control important constraints on the implementation of computing power projects. It recommends paying attention to gas turbines and chillers, grasping the two main lines of power supply and temperature control respectively. China Securities Co.,Ltd. believes that global gas turbine orders remain prosperous, and the scale of U.S. gas-fired power generation under construction and the proportion of AIDC-related projects are rising simultaneously. Domestic gas turbines, with shorter delivery cycles, higher cost-effectiveness, and continuously strengthening product competitiveness, are expected to accelerate the acquisition of overseas market share. It remains firmly optimistic about domestic gas turbines going global. Related concept stocks: Dongfang Electric Corporation(01072): Ranked among the top domestically in independent F-class heavy-duty gas turbines; the G50-type 50MW gas turbine main unit is localized, achieving complete-unit export to Kazakhstan; it has extensive engineering track records in large domestic power stations and gas storage peak-shaving projects, and is also laying out independently developed gas turbine products at smaller power levels such as the G15. Shanghai Electric Group(02727): Carries out deep technical cooperation with overseas enterprises and has F/H-class heavy-duty gas turbine manufacturing capabilities; the 300MW-class F-class prototype has completed final assembly, hydrogen-blended combustion technology continues to iterate, and it provides equipment for peak-shaving scenarios in China's new power system. HARBIN ELECTRIC(01133): Recently, Harbin Electric's developed 16-megawatt-class gas turbine was connected to the grid for trial operation. The 16-megawatt-class gas turbine independently developed by Harbin Electric Turbine adopts a three-rotor structural design, with overall thermal efficiency exceeding 36% and clean emission performance reaching internationally advanced levels. It has outstanding advantages in scenarios such as mechanical drive, distributed energy, emergency power, and offshore platform power generation, and can strongly support the construction of a new power system dominated by new energy.