Broker Morning Meeting Highlights | U.S. Macro Fragility Manageable, Computing Power and Semiconductor Equipment Momentum Continues

Title context: Broker Morning Meeting Highlights | U.S. Macro Fragility Manageable, Computing Power and Semiconductor Equipment Momentum Continues Text: On the previous trading day (October 22), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.48% to 3,658.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.96% to 11,357.32 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 4.37% to 2,576.90 points; turnover in the two markets was 1,528.714 billion yuan; 535 stocks rose, 4,999 fell, and 43 were flat, with 32 hitting the limit up and 5 hitting the limit down. Huafu Securities believes that U.S. macro fragility is generally controllable but the valuation margin of safety is relatively thin; Guotai Haitong believes that computing power scarcity continues to be validated and energy prices are strengthening; CITIC SEC believes that equipment orders are accelerating their transmission to upstream components, and domestic suppliers are moving from backup to primary; Sinolink believes that securities firms' equity investment has become an important profit contributor. Huafu Securities: Macro | How to observe U.S. fragility? Current U.S. macro fragility is generally controllable. In a tightening environment, risks tend to accumulate first in leverage and asset valuations, forming fragility, then gradually emerge as financing conditions tighten, and finally manifest as credit risk exposure. If inflation rebounds and geopolitical conflicts continue to exceed expectations, the market may reassess the interest rate path, driving valuation adjustments in risk assets and amplifying pressure through higher financing costs and tighter liquidity, at which point asset prices may see periodic corrections. Household and corporate defaults are usually lagging manifestations after risk has transmitted to the repayment stage; if they deteriorate broadly, it often means risk has entered a later stage of exposure and clearing. Guotai Haitong: Strategy | Computing power scarcity continues to be validated, energy prices are strengthening Computing power scarcity continues to be validated, and energy prices are strengthening. Last week (10.12-10.18), the main meso-level prosperity clues were: 1) AI hardware prosperity growth continued at a high level, computing power rental prices remained relatively strong, but call demand weakened week on week, with OpenRouter call volume declining week on week and average Token price edging down; continue to observe prosperity progress in the Token call market; 2) geopolitical disruptions supported oil prices, winter stockpiling drove coal prices stronger, and metal prices fell; 3) construction and freight demand recovered after the holiday, new home sales were still down year on year, hog prices continued to fall, and domestic demand prosperity remained relatively weak. CITIC SEC: Electronics | 2026 Bay Area Chip Exhibition summary: component orders continue to be revised upward, equipment remains highly prosperous The 2026 Bay Area Chip Exhibition expanded further in scale, attracting more than 6,500 professional buyers, with new products and new processes from domestic equipment makers showcased in concentration. New equipment orders in 26Q3 continued their robust momentum, and the industry remains optimistic about equipment demand for more than the next three years, with some companies believing this round of order acceleration can extend to 2028/2029; over the medium and long term, AI-driven global capacity expansion and process upgrades are expected to continue opening up room for equipment demand. From the perspective of the industrial chain, equipment order growth is accelerating its transmission to upstream components, lead times for core overseas components have lengthened significantly, and some categories have formed a "soft supply cutoff" for domestic equipment makers, pushing domestic suppliers to accelerate "moving from backup to primary," with orders at leading component companies already growing markedly. We believe global capacity expansion and domestic substitution are expected to jointly drive order and share gains for domestic companies, and we remain bullish on the domestic semiconductor components and equipment industrial chain. Sinolink: Non-bank financials | In-depth report on securities firms' equity investment: alternative subsidiaries unleash elasticity, follow-on investments open up return dividends The equity investment business has become an important profit contributor. In 26H1, the private equity subsidiaries and alternative investment subsidiaries of securities firms within our coverage recorded combined net profit of about 24.063 billion yuan (excluding CICC Wealth), accounting for about 16% of the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed securities firms, and the equity investment business has already played a key role. The essence of the business is a portfolio of technology equity options held by securities firms, strongly cyclical and highly elastic. Returns come from the valuation leap from primary-market cost to IPO market value and then to secondary-market price, highly linked to the secondary market, with return elasticity and drawdown risk coexisting. Securities firms with leading comprehensive capabilities also have greater advantages in synergies such as investment banking and investment research.