Is the merger of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) entering the final countdown? Barclays: An official announcement may come this year, with the obstacle being the shareholder vote.

Barclays analysts said a merger between Elon Musk's Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) could be announced before the electric-vehicle maker holds its annual shareholder meeting. The analyst team led by Dan Levy expects the 2026 shareholder meeting to take place no later than Dec. 6. While such a merger would bring certain financial synergies, the real value lies in the vertical integration of the two companies' artificial-intelligence (AI) technologies, they added. "The probability of a Tesla, Inc./SpaceX merger has increasingly become a consensus market expectation," the analysts wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. "While the timing of a Tesla, Inc./SpaceX merger announcement could slip into late October, or potentially early November, we believe that if it drags into this window, completing merger approval at the shareholder meeting would become significantly more difficult." Investors and analysts have long widely expected a merger between Musk's two ventures, especially after SpaceX completed a record-breaking initial public offering this year. In January, reports said SpaceX had weighed a merger with Tesla, Inc. but ultimately decided to acquire Musk's AI startup xAI. As of Wednesday's close, Tesla, Inc. shares fell 2.15%, while SpaceX shares dropped 2.80%. It is understood that multiple business ties and overlapping investor bases already exist between SpaceX and Tesla, Inc., and both companies share Musk as CEO. The rocket manufacturer has purchased more than $100 million worth of Tesla, Inc. Cybertrucks, while xAI is a major customer of Tesla, Inc.'s utility-scale batteries. The two companies are also collaborating on a chip-manufacturing project called Terafab, which will produce semiconductors for Tesla, Inc.'s electric vehicles, robotaxis and OptimusSiasun Robot&Automation, as well as a chip designed exclusively for SpaceX's orbital AI satellites. Musk recently discussed various ways the two largest companies under his control interact and converge, including at a recent earnings call, where he said Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX "overlap in many areas." Barclays said the main obstacle to any deal will be the shareholder vote, as shareholders of both Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX may need to approve the merger. "In Tesla, Inc.'s 2025 annual shareholder meeting vote, about 11% of total votes outstanding were 'broker non-votes,' which are effectively counted as 'against' votes, and we expect Tesla, Inc. will seek to increase shareholder participation in a potential SpaceX merger vote," the analysts wrote.