Central China: Lithium battery performance growth accelerates, focus on three main lines

Central China released a research report maintaining an "Outperform the Market" investment rating for the lithium battery industry. In the first half of 2026, China's power, energy storage, and consumer battery shipments accounted for 52.50%, 40.42%, and 7.08%, respectively. Based on the development trends of the lithium battery industry, the characteristics of domestic and international new energy vehicle industry development, lithium battery industry chain price trends, and performance overviews of segmented sectors, it is recommended to continue positioning around three main lines. Central China's main views are as follows: The lithium battery index trend in 2026 is weaker than the CSI 300 Index Since 2026, the lithium battery index trend has been weaker than the CSI 300 Index. As of October 9, the lithium battery index fell 8.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.29 percentage points. Sector performance growth rate increased, Henan stocks' lithium battery combined performance proportion is low In 2025, the lithium battery sector's revenue was 2.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.26%; net profit was 158.134 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.69%. In the first half of 2026, the sector's revenue was 1.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.26%, with 85.85% of companies achieving positive growth; net profit was 124.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.02%, with 71.70% of companies achieving positive growth. Henan stocks' lithium battery sector has a total of 3 targets, accounting for 2.83% of the lithium battery sector's targets; the revenue and net profit scale of Henan stocks' lithium battery companies are generally small, with the total revenue proportion of Henan stocks' lithium battery fluctuating around 1.1%, while net profit fluctuates significantly. In 2025, the total revenue of Henan stocks' lithium battery increased by 13.38% year-on-year, with net profit at a loss; in the first half of 2026, total revenue grew by 34.68%, with net profit of 239 million yuan. Energy storage shipments grew rapidly, power shipments continued to grow In the first half of 2026, China's power, energy storage, and consumer battery shipments accounted for 52.50%, 40.42%, and 7.08%, respectively, with power battery proportion increasing by 1.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter from Q1; energy storage battery shipments were 485GWh, a year-on-year increase of over 80%, with full-year shipments expected to exceed 1TWh, a year-on-year increase of approximately 60%. From January to August 2026, China's Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation vehicle sales were 10.649 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.02%, accounting for 52.43% of total sales, of which exports were 3.433 million units, a year-on-year increase of 128.11%; China's power and energy storage battery combined production was 1523.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 60.10%, of which exports were 259.0GWh, with exports accounting for 18.7% of cumulative sales. Industry chain high-frequency average prices generally rose Since 2026, the high-frequency average prices of major materials in the lithium battery industry chain have generally risen compared to 2025. The logic lies in sustained demand growth, years of price adjustments in the industry chain leading to partial capacity clearance, and increased capacity utilization rates, though the logic differs across different segmented products. As of October 8: lithium carbonate prices were 122,000 yuan/ton, up 1.67% from the beginning of 2026; lithium hydroxide prices rose 3.11% from the beginning of the year. Risk warnings: Domestic and international macroeconomic downturn exceeding expectations; new energy vehicle sales falling short of expectations; industry policy implementation strength falling short of expectations; intensified industry competition; significant price fluctuations in segmented sectors; systemic risks.