Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | Focus on high-prosperity varieties and supply-cleared varieties

Last Friday, the market dipped in the afternoon before rebounding, with all three major indices turning positive; the ChiNext Index had previously fallen over 3%. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.9 trillion yuan. On the board, concepts such as film and television media, lithium batteries, agriculture, major consumer goods, and organosilicon showed active performance. On the decline side, concepts like wind power equipment and PCB weakened. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.22%. CITIC SEC believes to focus on high-prosperity varieties and supply-cleared varieties; CICC believes that the "tech + dividend" barbell allocation structure is expected to receive increased attention; China Securities Co.,Ltd. believes to prioritize defense and wait for a turnaround. CITIC SEC: Focus on high-prosperity varieties and supply-cleared varieties Stabilizing oil prices, lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data, and downward revisions to Federal Reserve rate hike expectations have not changed the rise in global long-term bond yields. The reason behind this is persistently strong private-sector investment and financing demand. Driven by trillion-dollar investments, North America has taken the lead in moving away from the "abnormal" post-financial-crisis environment of low growth CKH HOLDINGS and low interest rates. A global high-interest-rate environment, before the inflection point of the AI investment cycle, is a norm that must be dealt with. The only demand insensitive to overseas high interest rates is North American AI and areas related to China's central fiscal expansion, while the overseas expansion and resource sectors that provided excellent shareholding experiences in recent years are under pressure. In a weak-demand environment, the scarcity of supply-cleared varieties stands out, and the anti-involution process next year still deserves attention. In terms of allocation strategy, in the short term, only high-prosperity varieties and supply-cleared varieties can be used to cope with the high-interest-rate environment. It is recommended to closely track the inflection point of the AI investment cycle. CICC: The "tech + dividend" barbell allocation structure is expected to receive increased attention In an environment of limited aggregate growth elasticity, the coexistence of structural high prosperity and increased volatility in market risk appetite, the "tech + dividend" barbell structure is expected to become an allocation choice that balances profit growth elasticity, shareholder cash returns, and portfolio stability. On the tech side, it is recommended to focus on companies with clear industry trends, long-term competitive advantages, and profit realization capability; on the dividend side, focus on high-quality companies with stable earnings and cash flow, sustainable dividends, and reasonable valuations. China Securities Co.,Ltd.: Prioritize defense, wait for a turnaround The A-share market performance after the holiday was below expectations, with the tech sector becoming the center of the adjustment. In the short term, it was directly hit by FCC optical module restrictions and OpenAI revenue falling short of expectations; the fundamental reason is that A-shares are in the second wave of leverage structure adjustment, compounded by overseas liquidity tightening and Middle East geopolitical disturbances, continuously weighing on risk appetite. However, positive signals have begun to accumulate: overseas geopolitical tensions have eased, domestic market stabilization mechanisms are in place, and the tech sector's earnings remain prosperous. If subsequent macroeconomic disturbances ease and third-quarter earnings are verified, market expectations are expected to reverse. In terms of allocation, prioritize defense, with dividend assets as the base position; for high-prosperity directions, arrange around third-quarter earnings in AI computing power, chemical resource products, and other profit-improving segments, as well as the new energy sector under the logic of European energy security. This article is reprinted from "Cailian Press", GMTEight editor: Liu Jiayin.