Huatai Hang Seng Tech Index inclusion forecast: 10 new additions each in the market cap group and growth group; Haizhi Technology (02706) with surging revenue expected to be included.

Huatai released a research report titled "Consultation Results and Summary of the Revised Hang Seng Tech Index Compilation Methodology," publishing the final version. In its updated inclusion forecast under the final rules, XTALPI and HAIZHI TECH GP remain on the predicted inclusion list. HAIZHI TECH GP (02706), driven by its Atlas agent revenue, saw core revenue surge, laying the foundation for long-term development and making it a likely candidate for group switching in this round of adjustment. Huatai's main points are as follows: On October 7, 2026, Hang Seng Indexes Company released the "Consultation Results and Summary of the Revised Hang Seng Tech Index Compilation Methodology." The consultation received 49 market responses, with all six revision proposals receiving over 80% support. Five were adopted as proposed, while the dual-group stock selection mechanism was "adopted with adjustments," adding two inclusion thresholds on top of the consultation paper. The revised compilation methodology will be implemented in the quarterly review for the period ended September 30, 2026, with results to be announced on November 20 and corresponding constituent changes effective from Monday, December 7. In its August 12, 2026 report "Revision of Hang Seng Tech Index Compilation Methodology Key Points of the Consultation Paper and Impact Assessment," Huatai had already forecast the consultation paper framework and first-round inclusion list. This article focuses on changes in the final version relative to the consultation paper and provides a comprehensive update to the inclusion forecast based on the third-quarter-end review. Three incremental pieces of information in the final version relative to the consultation paper: two inclusion thresholds and complete definitions of sub-themes Compared with the consultation paper, the main adjustments respond to concerns in the consultation feedback about liquidity and revenue volatility of small-cap stocks in the growth group: Minimum liquidity requirement all non-existing constituents must meet a minimum average daily turnover of HK$100 million over the past 3 months; Minimum revenue requirement constituents selected by revenue growth ranking must have recorded annual revenue of no less than HK$500 million in each of the most recent two consecutive fiscal years. In addition, the final version's appendix discloses for the first time the complete definitions of 24 technology sub-themes. The autonomous driving sub-theme sets a quantitative condition for automakers requiring that "pure electric product lines account for the majority of total sales." Digital finance explicitly excludes banks, exchanges, and securities brokerage service companies. Specialized components and hardware specifically names LiDAR, acoustic components, and PCB and IC substrates. The boundaries of theme classification are significantly clearer than in the consultation paper. All other elements remain unchanged as proposed: removal of industry requirements, restructuring into six major technology themes, expansion of sub-themes from 16 to 24, restriction of the selection universe to Hang Seng Composite LargeCap and MidCap Index constituents, and increase in constituent count from 30 to 50. Updated individual stock inclusion forecast: 10 new additions each in the market cap group and growth group Using October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026 as the measurement window, the bank updated its inclusion forecast under the final rules: Market cap group expected to add 10: Contemporary Amperex Technology, KB LAMINATES, JD LOGISTICS, GDS-SW, ASMPT, BIREN TECH, AAC TECH, UBTECH ROBOTICS, XTALPI; Growth group expected to add 10: TIME INTERCON, INNOSCIENCE, UNISOUND, HESAI-W, KINGSOFT CLOUD, EAST BUY, ROBOSENSE, MOBVISTA, HAIZHI TECH GP, among others. Relative to the bank's previous forecast list based on the consultation paper rules, there are relatively notable marginal changes due to data updates through the third quarter combined with rule adjustments: 8 new entrants: TIME INTERCON, UNISOUND, KINGSOFT CLOUD, EAST BUY, ROBOSENSE, MOBVISTA, MEITU, among which one entered the measurement scope for the first time after its September new listing and was selected at a high position in the market cap group, while the other 7 are growth group sequential replacements after high-growth small caps were screened out by the final version thresholds; 2 group switches: XTALPI changed from a growth group forecast to selection at the bottom of the market cap group, and HAIZHI TECH GP changed from a market cap group forecast to the growth group. HAIZHI TECH GP's interim results report shows that the company's core growth engine, the Atlas agent business, generated revenue of RMB 115 million, a sharp year-on-year increase of 135.6%, forming a "dual-wheel drive" development pattern with its traditional Atlas graph business. This validates the long-term prosperity of the "graph + controllable AI" industry route, and it has a development foundation within the growth group. CHINA LIT, PONY-W, GEEKPLUS-W and other stocks are on the edge of inclusion. Ganfeng Lithium Group and GEELY AUTO have classification paths under the final version's sub-theme provisions and are listed as key watch targets. Impact assessment: approximately 10% weight rebalancing, corresponding to approximately HK$28.9 billion in rebalancing funds Hang Seng Indexes Company's simulated adjustment for the Hang Seng Tech Index shows that the existing 30 constituents account for approximately 90% of the revised index weight, with the 20 new additions totaling approximately 10%, somewhat converged from the 11.5% simulated in the consultation paper. In terms of fund flows, based on US$37.1 billion in Hang Seng Tech tracking scale: In aggregate, this corresponds to approximately HK$28.9 billion in rebalancing funds, of which approximately HK$20.8 billion is for the market cap group and approximately HK$8.1 billion for the growth group; At the individual stock level, Contemporary Amperex Technology is the largest single addition, with an estimated weight of 2.27% to 2.43%, corresponding to inflows of HK$6.6 billion to HK$7.0 billion. GDS-SW, JD LOGISTICS, and others with relatively low average daily turnover may face longer impact periods for inflows.