Prediction market sentiment shifts abruptly: Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) overtakes Anthropic, leading the 2026 AI model race.

On Thursday, Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US, GOOG.US) overtook long-time favorite Anthropic in prediction market implied probability to claim the top spot. Traders are betting on which tech giant will have the strongest AI model by the end of this year. According to Polymarket data, Alphabet Inc. Class C currently leads with a 43% implied probability, with the market believing it is most likely to release the best AI model before December 31, narrowly edging out Anthropic at 42%. OpenAI and Meta (META.US) trail significantly, with implied probabilities of 6.5% and 2.9%, respectively. On the Kalshi platform, an almost identical shift is playing out: Alphabet Inc. Class C Gemini's implied probability has risen to 41.9%, surpassing Anthropic's Claude (41.3%) and OpenAI's ChatGPT (8.4%). For most of this year, Anthropic held the lead on both platforms, with implied probabilities often reaching 70% to 80%. But in early October, Anthropic's implied probability fell sharply, opening the door for Alphabet Inc. Class C to climb from single digits and seize the leading position as the year-end deadline approaches. Earlier on Thursday, Alphabet Inc. Class C released Gemini Agent at its Gemini at Work 2026 event. It is a single general-purpose agent that can answer questions, handle knowledge work, create images and media content, and write and run code. Shortly before that, Meta released Muse, and OpenAI released Dots. Meanwhile, investors have been scaling back expectations for this autumn's IPO boom. Due to market volatility and broader uncertainty, several companies have postponed their listing plans. As one of the most anticipated IPOs, Anthropic is now targeting a launch before Thanksgiving, after previously considering an earlier autumn listing. Its main rival, OpenAI, is not expected to go public until at least 2027.