EB SECURITIES: Bullish on computing-power coordination, green power-to-hydrogen/ammonia/methanol and other directions; jointly define project economic boundaries.

EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that, from the perspective of application scenarios, based on the requirements of green power direct connection for load scale, stability, and source-load matching, the bank is bullish on directions such as computing-power coordination and green power-to-hydrogen/ammonia/methanol. Under computing-power coordination, the main ways for power operators to participate are: 1) directly supplying green power to data centers, and 2) investing in computing-power projects. Green power-to-hydrogen/ammonia/methanol is expected to form an application model featuring coordinated development of new energy development and new green loads; on the operations service side, as projects extend from construction to long-term operation, the importance of source-load resource integration, power trading, and integrated energy management capabilities is expected to increase. EB SECURITIES' main views are as follows: Green power direct connection has a basis for reducing energy costs, but the economics do not come from simply lowering the cost of electricity itself, but mainly from optimization of grid-side fees Green power direct connection directly connects new energy power sources with the load side, reducing part of the electricity drawn from the grid, and lowers transmission and distribution fees, system operation fees, and line loss fees through changes in transmission and distribution tariff billing methods and optimization of access capacity. Therefore, its core value lies in the optimization of comprehensive electricity costs brought by direct source-load matching. Based on calculations using the parameters of the Shandong Aiko project, under the baseline scenario of 150MW wind power, 26MW photovoltaic, 50MW/100MWh energy storage, 80MVA access capacity, and a 30% self-generation and self-consumption ratio, the unit electricity cost under the green power direct connection model is approximately 0.606 yuan/kWh, about 8.58% lower than the 0.663 yuan/kWh under the traditional electricity use model; among this, the construction, operation and maintenance of new dedicated lines and energy storage investment and replacement costs constitute the main incremental costs, partially offsetting the savings in grid-side fees. "Determining sources by load" is the core of green power direct connection project design, and the degree of source-load matching determines the project's economic boundary Green power direct connection is not simply about adding new energy installed capacity, but requires coordinated configuration of wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, and grid access capacity around the user's hourly load curve. Scenario analysis in the report shows that, with total installed capacity unchanged, once the power source structure deviates from the baseline configuration, the temporal mismatch between new energy output and user load increases, which will push up energy storage configuration and grid access capacity, thereby increasing the project's comprehensive electricity cost; the comprehensive electricity cost rises from 0.606 yuan/kWh in the baseline scenario to 0.625-0.643 yuan/kWh, and the cost-reduction advantage gradually narrows, indicating that there is no unified optimal configuration for green power direct connection applicable to all users, and the actual project plan still needs to be determined based on 8,760-hour hourly simulation. Users with high load rates and stable loads have a relatively good foundation for green power direct connection applications, and continuous-production manufacturing is expected to become an important application scenario High load rates and stable load curves can increase the proportion of local consumption of new energy and enhance the temporal matching between local new energy output and user demand, thereby reducing energy storage configuration requirements and public grid access capacity. For 24-hour continuous-production users such as battery cells and modules, the relatively good all-weather output characteristics of wind power can cover part of the nighttime base load, while photovoltaic supplements daytime electricity demand, and wind-solar complementarity helps reduce dependence on energy storage and the public grid while meeting green power consumption requirements. Therefore, the room for promoting green power direct connection depends not only on new energy resource conditions, but also on the electricity use scale, load rate, and curve stability on the load side. As projects extend from single construction to long-term operation, the competitive logic is expected to shift from the ability to acquire new energy resources to comprehensive capabilities across "source-load-storage-grid-trading" The value of green power direct connection projects comes not only from power generation revenue on the source side, but also involves comprehensive returns such as energy cost savings on the load side, PPAs, power trading, dedicated lines, and energy storage. As projects are replicated at scale, project developers need to simultaneously possess capabilities in new energy resource acquisition, source-load matching, energy storage configuration, power trading, and integrated energy operations, and the value of the industrial chain is expected to extend further from the single power source development segment to source-load coordination and operations services. Risk analysis: risk of policy advancement falling short of expectations; risk of source-load matching falling short of expectations; risk of power market price fluctuations; risk of rising project investment costs.