Five consecutive gains, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 18.5 percentage points since the stage low: The tailwind for kidney disease has arrived.

On September 29, a conference call hosted by Huatai on the IgA nephropathy treatment landscape put Alebund Pharmaceuticals' (09637.HK) AP308 and its differentiated mechanism in front of investors: directly degrading already-formed IgA and its immune complexes, exploring the clearance of existing deposits within the glomeruli. Why does AP308, a pipeline still awaiting human validation, deserve attention? The answer must be found in recent changes in innovative kidney disease drugs. As of the October 6 close, Alebund Pharmaceuticals traded at HK$26.66, recording five consecutive gains and a cumulative rise of 13.7% from the September 28 close. Measured from the stage closing low of HK$23 on September 14, it has rebounded 15.9% cumulatively; over the same period, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.6%, outperforming by about 18.5 percentage points. AP308 has become a recent focus of discussion, with the key being that it proposes a new therapeutic entry point. According to the company's September 8 announcement, in a humanized IgA nephropathy mouse model, glomerular IgA deposition was almost completely cleared after eight consecutive weeks of dosing, with improvements in proteinuria and renal pathology. These are preclinical results; the U.S. FDA has granted IND clearance, and China's National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has also accepted its IND application, opening a path for first-in-human trials. According to the conference call, the company expects to initiate a Phase I study in China and Australia in early 2027 and to read out some early efficacy and safety data in the second half of 2027, providing an observation window worth anticipating for proof of concept (PoC). In summary, Alebund's highlights are distributed across four pipelines: AP308 explores etiological treatment of IgA; AP303 is positioned for disease-modifying therapy and multi-indication development; AP301's China marketing application has been accepted; AP306 is advancing a global Phase IIb study. Recent attention on AP308 also means the market has begun to re-examine the portfolio value of this group of kidney disease assets. Kidney disease assets are regaining attention, with recent BD and indication expansion providing a footnote: in 2023, Novartis acquired Chinook for up to US$3.5 billion (including up to US$300 million in contingent consideration), building a position in anti-APRIL and endothelin A receptor pipelines; in 2024, Vertex acquired Alpine for about US$4.9 billion, entering the BAFF/APRIL dual-target space. Multinational pharmaceutical companies are focusing on different therapeutic pathways, while AP308 attempts to degrade IgA and its immune complexes and clear already-formed glomerular deposits, offering a differentiated entry point. Another example is Travere: FILSPARI was approved for a new FSGS indication in April 2026, broadening growth expectations; its market capitalization rose from about US$3.47 billion at the end of 2025 to about US$5.43 billion as of October 5, 2026, and Citi also raised its target price from US$70 to US$85. Compared with existing sales performance, what is more noteworthy here is the value re-rating brought by the approval of a new indication. The market's attention to innovative kidney disease drugs is extending from IgA nephropathy to more disease types. Alebund's AP303 starts from the common pathological mechanisms of chronic kidney disease, connecting multiple treatment scenarios. This self-developed oral PPAR / dual agonist with global rights simultaneously targets abnormal glomerular pressure, podocyte injury with inflammation and fibrosis, and tubular metabolic dysfunction, with development directions covering diabetic nephropathy, IgA nephropathy, autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease, and FSGS. Results from three Phase I/Ib studies were published in Kidney International Reports in August 2026, showing good safety and tolerability. Regulatory progress has also opened a path for multi-indication development: AP303 has received IND clearance to conduct Phase II clinical trials. Common pathological mechanisms, multi-indication development, and global rights make AP303 an important pillar for Alebund in expanding its kidney disease treatment footprint. The nearer-term commercialization realization is AP301. The advantages of this next-generation iron-based phosphate binder lie in sustained phosphorus reduction, a lower daily dose, and a capsule formulation that requires no chewing and has no odor. For dialysis patients requiring long-term medication, these features are expected to reduce the burden of medication and improve the medication experience. The China pivotal Phase III RESPOND-1 study enrolled 474 maintenance dialysis patients across 50 centers. At Week 52, the serum phosphorus response rate for AP301 was 66.7%, a relative increase of about 13.8% versus 58.6% for sevelamer. Estimated by total mass, AP301's daily dose is about 26.7% lower than the approximately 10.40 grams of sevelamer carbonate. In other words, AP301 achieved a numerically higher long-term serum phosphorus response rate with a lower total daily formulation mass. It was generally safe and well tolerated during the 52-week treatment period, with no obvious signal of iron overload risk observed. In August 2026, AP301's China NDA was formally accepted, and a global Phase III multi-regional clinical trial is advancing in parallel; the company expects approval and launch in China in 2027, with the specific timeline depending on regulatory review. From the perspective of commercialization space, Bank of America Securities' initiation report estimates that, on a pre-risk-adjustment basis and after deducting distribution and related costs, AP301's China market revenue could reach about RMB 2.97 billion by 2035. For the U.S. market, Huatai estimates that product sales after restoring the risk discount could exceed US$1 billion. More mechanistically innovative is AP306. Compared with phosphate binders that bind dietary phosphorus in the intestine, AP306 blocks active phosphorus absorption by simultaneously inhibiting three intestinal phosphate transporters, NaPi-IIb, PiT-1, and PiT-2, achieving phosphorus reduction at a lower dosage. In the completed China Phase II study, at Week 12 the AP306 group's serum phosphorus decreased by an average of 0.81 mmol/L (2.51 mg/dL) from baseline; over the same period, the proportion of patients in the AP306 group reaching the KDIGO-recommended serum phosphorus range of 0.811.45 mmol/L (2.54.5 mg/dL) was 44%, versus 21% in the trial's active control arm of sevelamer carbonate. Dosing convenience is also a differentiated advantage of AP306. The company's prospectus and the BofA research report note that AP306 requires only 23 small tablets per day, compared with the burden of 612 tablets per day for traditional phosphate binders, making long-term use more convenient for dialysis patients. AP306 received NMPA Breakthrough Therapy designation in June 2024. Recent Goldman Sachs China biopharma trip notes show that management believes AP306 is expected to establish advantages in efficacy, diarrhea rates, and discontinuation rates, and to cover different patient and payer groups alongside AP301. On the commercialization path, Alebund has granted R1 Therapeutics the rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize AP306 outside Greater China; R1's shareholders include DaVita and U.S. Renal Care, two leading U.S. kidney care providers. The global Phase IIb multi-regional clinical trial has completed randomization and dosing of the first subject. Bank of America Securities' initiation report estimates: AP306's peak sales in the China market exceed RMB 3.4 billion, and peak sales in the U.S. market exceed US$3.4 billion. Subsequent catalysts are also gradually taking shape. The advancement of AP301's China review and the company's expected 2027 approval will bring nearer-term commercialization observation opportunities; its global Phase III is expected to complete in the second quarter of 2027. AP306's global Phase IIb is likewise expected to complete in the second quarter of 2027, and the company will disclose top-line data in due course and plans to initiate a global Phase III study in the second half of 2027. AP303 is advancing development around a basket Phase II in diabetic nephropathy and IgA nephropathy, as well as two Phase II multi-regional studies in ADPKD and FSGS, and the multi-indication layout will continue to enrich the company's clinical catalysts. AP308 is expected to bring early PoC-related data in the second half of 2027. From AP301's registration and commercialization, to AP306's global clinical advancement, to AP303's multi-indication development and AP308's mechanistic innovation, Alebund has a continuous series of observation nodes. What is worth noting behind the five consecutive gains is that new mechanisms in the kidney disease industry, commercialization increments, and the company's own pipeline progress are beginning to echo one another.