Overnight US stocks | U.S. Treasury yields retreated from highs, the three major indexes closed higher, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) rose 3.03%

Thursday saw the three major indexes close higher. U.S. President Trump said things were going well on Iran, stating that Iran is ready to give in and we will win fairly easily. We have already shipped out a large amount of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices will fall again. U.S. Treasury yields retreated from multi-year highs, with the 10-year Treasury yield touching 5.344% intraday, the highest since 2002. The 30-year Treasury yield also rose to a level not seen in 24 years. By late in the trading session, yields began to pull back. The 10-year and 30-year yields fell 5 and 3 basis points, respectively. The decline was more pronounced at the short end of the curve, with the 2-year yield plunging 10 basis points. [U.S. Stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 20.75 points, or 0.04%, to 50,926.80; the S&P 500 rose 15.12 points, or 0.20%, to 7,666.66; the Nasdaq Composite rose 10.53 points, or 0.04%, to 26,871.60. Accenture Plc Class A (ACN.US) rose 15.99%, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) rose 5.08%, SanDisk (SNDK.US) rose 2.75%, IBM (IBM.US) rose 2.63%, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) rose 3.03%; Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) fell 2.15%, Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG.US) fell 1.7%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.03%, NTES (NTES.US) fell 0.45%, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) fell 0.09%. [European Stocks] Germany's DAX30 fell 260.07 points, or 1.03%, to 24,939.12; the UK's FTSE 100 fell 183.64 points, or 1.73%, to 10,422.36; France's CAC40 fell 129.20 points, or 1.62%, to 7,835.31; the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 97.47 points, or 1.55%, to 6,171.55; Spain's IBEX35 fell 442.06 points, or 2.28%, to 18,984.14; Italy's FTSE MIB fell 1,153.48 points, or 2.25%, to 50,218.50. [Asia-Pacific Stocks] Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 3.3%, South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.95%, and Indonesia's Composite Index fell 1.02%. [Forex] The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.64% on the day and closed at 102.102 in late foreign exchange trading. As of late New York trading, 1 euro traded at $1.1235, down from $1.1332 the previous trading day; 1 pound traded at $1.3190, down from $1.3262 the previous trading day. 1 dollar traded at 158.11 yen, up from 157.34 yen the previous trading day; 1 dollar traded at 0.8317 Swiss francs, down from 0.8354 Swiss francs the previous trading day; 1 dollar traded at 1.4236 Canadian dollars, up from 1.4229 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; 1 dollar traded at 10.0597 Swedish kronor, up from 10.0103 Swedish kronor the previous trading day. [Cryptocurrencies] Bitcoin briefly broke through $85,000 and was at $84,718 as of publication; Ethereum rose 0.49% to $2,699. [Precious Metals] Spot gold was at $4,176.96 per ounce; spot silver was at $60.98 per ounce. [Crude Oil] Light crude futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.45 to settle at $92.87 per barrel, up 2.71%; London Brent crude futures for December delivery rose $4.28 to settle at $102.31 per barrel, up 4.37%. [Macro News] Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: It may take more time to judge whether further rate hikes are needed. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said inflation has been too high for too long and risks of it remaining elevated persist, but policymakers may need more time to determine whether further rate hikes are necessary. Any future policy adjustments should carefully assess data trends, changes in the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. Jefferson noted that U.S. economic activity and the labor market remain solid, but multiple shocks including higher energy prices, the AI investment boom, and tariffs are affecting the economy, and these factors cannot be viewed in isolation when setting policy. He also said that since the September meeting, Treasury yields across maturities have risen further, showing investors are reassessing the macroeconomic situation; as more data come in, the Fed will continue to judge whether inflation can return to target quickly enough and what monetary policy stance is most appropriate. Kashkari: Fed expected to need more rate hikes, but unsure about acting in October. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expects the Fed will still need to raise rates further to curb the economy and inflation, but he does not have a strong view on whether it should act at the October meeting. His previous forecast was for another 25 basis point hike this year and one more in 2027, but since the September meeting the U.S. economy has performed more strongly than he expected while inflation remains too high; if the economy remains unusually strong and inflation proves more stubborn than expected, rates may need to rise to a higher level than currently anticipated. Kashkari believes the current labor market is healthy and the economy is performing well, suggesting monetary policy "may not be particularly restrictive." He also said recent market volatility has not yet shown systemic risk, and the Treasury market has been able to digest the repricing of interest rates normally. U.S. initial jobless claims fall to lowest since July; continuing claims drop to a three-year low. U.S. initial jobless claims edged down to their lowest level since July, while continuing claims fell to a three-year low, indicating the labor market remains healthy. Continuing claims decreased by 11,000 to 1.7 million, the lowest since March 2023. In recent months, initial jobless claims have hovered near historic lows, indicating that businesses are reluctant to cut staff amid solid economic activity. At the same time, hiring has become more cautious. The government's nonfarm payrolls report due Friday is expected to show the unemployment rate held at 4.1% in September. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 200,000, a seven-week low. Without seasonal adjustment, initial claims declined in most states, including Hawaii, Georgia, and Texas. U.S. 30-year mortgage rate rises to 7.28%, highest in nearly three years. Fannie Mae data showed the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.28% this week from 7.03% last week, the sixth straight weekly increase and the highest since November 2023, compared with 6.34% a year earlier; the 15-year fixed mortgage rate also rose to 6.60% from 6.42%. In late February this year, the 30-year mortgage rate briefly fell to 5.98%, and has since risen about 1.3 percentage points, adding about $276 to the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan. According to the Associated Press, inflation expectations driven by soaring oil prices have pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from 3.97% in late February to 5.27% intraday on Thursday, further driving up mortgage costs. High rates continue to weigh on the U.S. housing market, with existing home sales falling 2% month over month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, the lowest in more than a year. U.S. manufacturing continued to expand in September, with the PMI hitting a more than three-year high. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global, Inc. Market Intelligence, said: "The pace of U.S. manufacturing growth accelerated again in September, with the PMI at its highest level since May 2022, as a surge in new orders prompted factories to sharply increase output and add workers. Backlogs continued to build and suppliers became increasingly busy, indicating that capacity is becoming stretched as companies struggle to meet demand from both consumer and business sectors. This was especially true for investment and production of machinery and equipment, which in many cases is linked to growth in AI-related spending. Although the continued decline in export orders is disappointing, the build-up of safety stock due to concerns about prices and supply chains also continued to support demand. While this sends an encouraging signal for further growth in manufacturing capacity in the coming months, signs that demand exceeds supply also mean inflationary pressure remains a key area of concern, especially with oil prices high. Faster economic growth, increased hiring, and higher price indicators will intensify market speculation that the Fed is about to raise rates further." [Individual Stock News] NVIDIA Corporation and SoftBank reportedly complete final $20 billion investment in OpenAI. According to media reports citing people familiar with the matter and a SoftBank statement, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) and SoftBank have each completed the final $10 billion investment in OpenAI's previous funding round, fulfilling their respective $30 billion investment commitments. OpenAI disclosed in March this year that the round received $122 billion in investment commitments, with a post-money valuation of $852 billion; Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) had previously committed to invest up to $50 billion and completed its full investment in July. With the previous round completed, OpenAI may be paving the way for its next private funding round, targeting about $30 billion in financing at a valuation that could reach about $1.4 trillion. SoftBank said that after completing the latest investment, its cumulative investment in OpenAI reached $64.6 billion, with a stake of about 13%; part of the final investment funds came from SoftBank's $11.1 billion high-yield bond issuance completed at the end of September. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) considers new Texas campus to produce more AI chips. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR is considering a new campus in Texas, which would add tens of billions of dollars in new investment to its multi-year U.S. chip manufacturing expansion plan. People familiar with the matter said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR is studying further overseas facilities to meet unabating demand for AI hardware. So far this year, North America has accounted for more than 75% of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's wafer revenue, while AI chip designers such as NVIDIA Corporation and AMD have brought huge orders for some of its most advanced technologies. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR Deputy Co-Chief Operating Officer Kevin Zhang said last month that the AI boom has already strained Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's existing capacity. If Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR ultimately decides to invest in Texas, the project would include multiple chip fabrication plants, each costing at least $20 billion, the people said. However, these plans are still at an early stage. The potential Texas investment also depends on whether U.S. lawmakers extend an advanced manufacturing tax credit set to expire at the end of this year. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) to provide up to $42 billion in loans to Anthropic for leasing its chips. Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows the company has established extensive partnerships with a small number of large technology companies. One stands out in particular: Broadcom Inc. Its cooperation with Anthropic covers computing power supply, equipment leasing, and financing. As part of this complex partnership, the IPO filing revealed that Broadcom Inc. has agreed to provide up to $42 billion in loans to Anthropic to finance infrastructure spending. In turn, Anthropic is expected to become Broadcom Inc.'s largest customer for its core chip design business next year, a spending pattern that has been a focus of AI skeptics on Wall Street. As part of the financing arrangement, Broadcom Inc. can designate a financing partner, and these debt instruments may convert into Anthropic stock. Anthropic disclosed that Broadcom Inc. serves as both hardware supplier and financing partner, a dual role that creates "potential conflicts of interest" that could affect Anthropic's access to the computing power it needs for its work.