Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracker | Major Boost for the Property Market! How Will the Mortgage Interest Subsidy Policy Reshape the Real Estate Sector? (With Concept Stocks)

Title context: Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracker | Major Boost for the Property Market! How Will the Mortgage Interest Subsidy Policy Reshape the Real Estate Sector? (With Concept Stocks) Text: On September 29, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice deciding to implement a mortgage interest subsidy policy for home purchases nationwide to support the rigid housing demand of urban and rural residents, easing the interest burden of commercial personal housing loans for families newly purchasing their first home. The policy precisely targets ordinary rigid demand for small- and medium-sized units at low total prices, providing another important measure for the stable development of the housing market. The policy will take effect on October 1, 2026, with an implementation period tentatively set at one year. During this period, for eligible first-home commercial personal housing loans newly issued by handling banks, the fiscal authorities will provide interest subsidy support at an annualized rate of 1 percentage point of the loan principal for a term not exceeding 5 years, with the maximum loan amount eligible for subsidy per household set at 1 million yuan. A relevant official stated that the central government's implementation of the mortgage interest subsidy policy for home purchases is an exploration of ways to safeguard and improve people's livelihoods in the housing sector, helping relatively lower-income families preparing to buy the most ordinary homes "reduce their monthly mortgage payments a bit." This initiative mainly focuses on first-home rigid demand, with priority support for ordinary families newly purchasing small- and medium-sized units at relatively low prices. The conditions require: First, the use of newly issued commercial personal housing loans to purchase a first home, excluding replacement of existing loans. The determination of "first home" follows current policies and includes both new homes and second-hand homes. Second, the purchased housing must have a floor area not exceeding 120 square meters. Third, the purchased housing price must not exceed 1.5 million yuan. According to a report by the China Index Academy, since 2026, the national real estate market has remained in a phase of continuous adjustment, with first-tier cities, leveraging strong urban competitiveness and sustained policy efforts, taking the lead in emerging from the adjustment period. In February, Shanghai took the lead with the "Shanghai Seven Measures," followed by Shenzhen optimizing purchase restrictions at the end of April, and Guangzhou also introducing the "Guangzhou Eight Measures." In August, Beijing further optimized purchase restrictions, housing gift policies, and provident fund policies, lowering the entry threshold and financial pressure for some homebuying groups. Shanghai subsequently introduced the "Shanghai Eight Measures," further optimizing policies on provident fund withdrawals, down payments for second homes outside the outer ring, and "trade-in" subsidies. The China Index Academy stated that due to continuous supply contraction, overall inventory levels in first-tier cities have continued to decline, and the new home absorption cycle has maintained a trend of continuous improvement, with both month-on-month and year-on-year declines in absorption cycles across cities. Before the long holiday, a series of combined policy measures had already been intensively released for the real estate market. On September 20, the newly revised "Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Funds" officially took effect; in addition, on September 28, the State Council executive meeting explicitly proposed to increase the intensity of counter-cyclical macro policy adjustment, roll out a batch of pragmatic and effective incremental policies, and study and introduce policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth. Compared with previous macro-level regulatory policies, the biggest difference of this interest subsidy is the adoption of a coordinated policy of "precise fiscal support + targeted monetary easing." From the overall situation of the real estate market, for second- and third-tier cities where total housing prices fall within the policy range, the policy's impact on rigid-demand transactions may be more direct. Ordinary second- and third-tier cities benefit more broadly. In central, western, and northeastern provincial capital cities, mainstream rigid-demand projects are concentrated in the 1-2 million yuan range, with a large number of rigid-demand housing units falling within the policy coverage, which can effectively support first-home buyers entering the market and consolidate the market's bottoming-out pace. Liu Yunlong, investment advisor at Guorong Securities, stated that the combined efforts of fiscal and monetary policies provide obvious precise and targeted support for rigid demand, with a more direct effect than previous broader policies; while activating rigid demand, promoting the market to stop falling and stabilize, and improving expectations, the policy does not support high-end improvement or speculative demand, making its focus more precise. Liu Yunlong suggested that investment priority be given to real estate enterprises with state-owned backgrounds, stable cash flows, and project positioning focused on rigid demand. Such companies can benefit more directly from the policy, destock faster, and are expected to achieve valuation repair and stock price rebounds earlier. The richer their cash and rigid-demand project reserves, the greater their elasticity. He also cautioned that the effects of this round of policy stimulus are inherently differentiated and structural, and some regional real estate enterprises will have a longer repair cycle. Wu Wei, chief investment advisor at Datong Securities, believes that future improvements in real estate fundamentals will show a K-shaped divergence: high-quality leading real estate enterprises in core cities will stabilize first and increase their market share, while real estate enterprises with layouts in third- and fourth-tier cities and tight capital chains will continue to face liquidation. He suggests focusing on two directions: first, leading high-quality real estate enterprises with sound finances, low debt, and abundant land reserves in core cities; second, the post-real-estate-cycle direction, where as second-hand housing transactions and improvement demand recover, intermediary business is asset-light and can quickly benefit from transaction volume, while the property management sector has strong counter-cyclical capability and can serve as a defensive allocation. Related Concept Stocks CHINA VANKE (02202): Vanke announced its 2026 interim results, with revenue of approximately 70.169 billion yuan, gross profit of approximately 1.632 billion yuan, and approximately 14.951 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of the company. By business type, among operating revenue, revenue from real estate development and related asset operation businesses was 48.70 billion yuan, accounting for 69.4%; revenue from property services was 18.46 billion yuan, accounting for 26.3%. During the reporting period, the group steadily advanced reform and risk mitigation work, achieving phased progress in ensuring stable production and operations and resolving debt risks. The company's development business completed the delivery of 23,000 homes on schedule and with quality, continued to reduce various expenses, and on a comparable basis achieved continuous expense declines over the past 8 quarters, with administrative expenses down 13% year-on-year. LONGFOR GROUP (00960): For the eight months ended August 31, 2026, the group achieved cumulative total contracted sales of RMB 20.84 billion and contracted sales area of 2.239 million square meters. In August alone, contracted sales amounted to RMB 2.20 billion, with contracted sales area of 250,000 square meters; in August alone, contracted sales attributable to shareholders' equity amounted to RMB 1.50 billion, with contracted sales area attributable to shareholders' equity of 174,000 square meters. YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123): YUEXIU PROPERTY announced that in August 2026, the company achieved contracted sales (together with contracted sales of joint venture and associate projects) of approximately RMB 5.599 billion, up approximately 1.7% year-on-year, with contracted sales area of approximately 168,300 square meters. From January to August 2026, the company achieved cumulative contracted sales (together with contracted sales of joint venture and associate projects) of approximately RMB 61.207 billion, with cumulative contracted sales area of approximately 2.0292 million square meters, up approximately 12.4% year-on-year.