Samsung's HBM4 ramp-up accelerates! Bernstein expects Q3 HBM revenue to surge 72% quarter-over-quarter, with memory market momentum continuing to heat up.

Bernstein's latest South Korea memory chip export tracking report shows that in August, South Korea's high-bandwidth memory (HBM)-related exports continued to maintain strong growth, with Samsung Electronics' HBM4 ramp-up particularly prominent. Based on regression analysis using July and August export data, Bernstein estimates that Samsung's third-quarter HBM revenue could surge 72% quarter-over-quarter to approximately $11.4 billion, about 23% higher than the firm's previous forecast. Overall, in August, South Korea's exports of multi-chip memory products to Taiwan and Malaysia grew 19% quarter-over-quarter, up 17% from May, and surged 77% year-over-year. Since the relevant export data has a high correlation with the historical HBM revenue of Samsung and SK Hynix, Bernstein believes the latest data reflects that overall HBM demand remained strong in the third quarter. Samsung Q3 HBM Revenue May Reach $11.4 Billion; HBM4 Becomes Growth Engine Looking at Samsung, in August, related exports from South Chungcheong Province in South Korea rebounded 30% quarter-over-quarter to $2.8 billion, up 61% from May. South Chungcheong Province is home to Samsung's back-end production facilities and is one of its main HBM packaging regions. Combined export value for July and August grew 83% compared with the same period of the previous quarter, indicating that Samsung's HBM business maintained strong growth momentum in the third quarter. Based on the regression relationship between historical export data and HBM revenue, Bernstein estimates that Samsung's third-quarter HBM revenue could reach approximately $11.4 billion, up 72% quarter-over-quarter and about 23% higher than the firm's previous estimate of $9.3 billion. It is worth noting that Samsung's HBM exports typically show a clear pattern of concentrated shipments at quarter-end. Since the first quarter of 2025, the first month of each quarter has on average accounted for less than 20% of total quarterly export value. The third quarter appears to be continuing this pattern, which means there is still room for further growth in September shipments. HBM4 has become an important factor driving Samsung's growth. Bernstein tracks changes in HBM average selling prices and product mix by monitoring the "value per unit weight" of exported products. In August, the value per unit weight of multi-chip memory products from South Chungcheong Province, used as a proxy indicator for Samsung's exports, rose another 8% quarter-over-quarter, reaching 2.2 times the April level. Bernstein believes this notable increase is likely mainly due to a higher share of HBM4 shipments, as the value per unit weight of HBM4 is expected to be significantly higher than that of HBM3 and HBM3E. Samsung previously estimated that third-quarter HBM4 sales would grow more than 3-fold quarter-over-quarter and account for more than 60% of the company's total HBM sales in the second half of 2026. Bernstein believes the current export data is broadly consistent with this guidance. SK Hynix HBM4 Yet to Ramp Up; Subsequent Shipment Pace Becomes Focus Compared with Samsung, SK Hynix's current related export data appears relatively moderate. In August, related exports from North Chungcheong Province and Gyeonggi Province, used as proxy indicators for SK Hynix's HBM exports, grew 7% quarter-over-quarter but fell 21% from May; combined export value for July and August also fell 21% compared with the same period of the previous quarter. Based on regression analysis using historical data, Bernstein estimates SK Hynix's third-quarter HBM revenue at approximately $5.9 billion, down about 14% quarter-over-quarter. However, the firm specifically emphasizes that export data cannot fully reflect SK Hynix's HBM revenue, so the above model forecast carries significant uncertainty. The relatively moderate export data may mainly be related to the later timing of SK Hynix's HBM4 shipments. Once HBM4 enters a large-scale ramp-up phase, its monthly shipment pace may change markedly, and the predictive power of the historical model would decline accordingly. If calculated based on SK Hynix's historical quarterly pattern of more concentrated shipments at quarter-end, its third-quarter HBM revenue could reach approximately $7.5 billion and achieve quarter-over-quarter growth. At the same time, the value per unit weight of SK Hynix's related products was basically flat in August, and there is not yet any obvious change from large-scale HBM4 shipments. Bernstein expects that as HBM4 officially ramps up, this indicator is likely to show a more pronounced increase in the coming months. Samsung HBM Share Poised for Interim Lead; SK Hynix HBM4 Becomes Key Going Forward Taking the August export data together, Bernstein believes Samsung's third-quarter HBM revenue growth rate may exceed SK Hynix's, and its market share may also take an interim lead, consistent with the firm's previous judgment that Samsung's HBM competitive position continues to improve. Samsung's earlier push to ship HBM4 is one of the important reasons for the recent divergence in growth pace between the two sides. However, SK Hynix's HBM4 is still expected to gradually ramp up later this year, at which point its market share is expected to receive support. At the same time, Bernstein expects that rising HBM contract prices in 2027 are expected to benefit both SK Hynix and the broader memory chip industry. The regression model in the report also shows this divergence. Samsung's July and August export data imply a third-quarter HBM revenue forecast that has already clearly exceeded Bernstein's previous expectations, while SK Hynix's current data shows that the impact of its large-scale HBM4 ramp-up has not yet been fully reflected. HBM Price Upside in Focus; 2027 Contract Negotiations Become Key In addition to shipment volumes, price is also an important factor determining HBM makers' future performance. Bernstein points out that since the third quarter of 2025, conventional memory product prices have risen significantly, but the increase in export value per unit weight, which reflects HBM price trends, has been relatively moderate. The recent sharp rise in Samsung's related indicator may more likely reflect product mix upgrades brought by a higher HBM4 share, rather than fully implying an equivalent increase in prices for the same generation of HBM products. Currently, memory suppliers and customers are negotiating 2027 HBM contracts and prices. Bernstein believes the earnings benefit from higher HBM prices may gradually emerge in the future. At the same time, the strong performance of conventional memory prices is expected to continue in the third quarter and further improve the revenue and profitability of major memory manufacturers. Exports to Malaysia for HBM Rise to $1.6 Billion; Advanced Packaging Demand in Focus Changes in South Korea's HBM export destinations are also worth noting. In August, South Korea's related exports to Malaysia further grew 22% quarter-over-quarter to approximately $1.6 billion, accounting for about 33% of all HBM-related exports. Over the past six months, average monthly exports to Malaysia were about $900 million, while those to Taiwan were about $3.7 billion. Bernstein believes this portion of demand may be related to Intel Corporation's EMIB advanced packaging business. Malaysia has Intel Corporation's high-end packaging facilities, and some high-end server CPUs equipped with HBM can be packaged through EMIB technology. However, the firm notes that the specific drivers behind this demand growth still need further observation. In terms of supplier structure, about 40% of Samsung's related exports flow to Malaysia, while the proportion of SK Hynix's proxy regions flowing to Malaysia is about 24%. Bernstein believes that the rapid growth in Malaysia demand this year has contributed notably to Samsung's HBM business and, to some extent, reflects that Samsung's HBM products are gaining broader customer demand. Bernstein Remains Bullish on the Memory Cycle Overall, Bernstein believes the August export data continues to show that Samsung's HBM business has strong growth momentum, while SK Hynix's large-scale HBM4 shipments have yet to be further reflected. The firm also cautions that using regional export data to forecast a single company's HBM revenue has certain limitations, so short-term export changes cannot simply be equated with a company's final financial performance. Nevertheless, given the relatively good correlation between the relevant data and historical HBM revenue, it can still serve as an important leading indicator for observing industry trends. Bernstein believes that rising conventional memory prices, clearer capital return policies, and long-term agreements (LTAs) are expected to continue providing support for the memory chip industry. Although the industry itself remains cyclical, the firm overall continues to be bullish on the DRAM market and the medium- to long-term prospects of Samsung, SK Hynix (SKHY.US), and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US). In terms of the current HBM competitive landscape, HBM4 is becoming the most critical variable for the next stage. Samsung, with its earlier ramp-up, currently shows stronger growth momentum; while as SK Hynix gradually increases HBM4 shipments later this year, competition between the two companies around next-generation high-bandwidth memory will continue. At the same time, 2027 HBM contract price negotiations and whether AI server demand can continue to remain strong will become important factors determining HBM market revenue in the next stage and the prosperity of the CKH HOLDINGS memory industry.