Middle East conflict drives up inflation, ECB may "stay put" until final rate hike in December.

Economists surveyed say the ECB will wait until December to deliver a final rate hike to curb inflation triggered by the Middle East conflict. The surveyed economists expect the ECB Governing Council to raise the deposit rate to 2.75% at its final meeting of the year, skipping the next opportunity to hike at the end of October. In the previous survey, analysts predicted that the 25-basis-point hike in September would be the terminal rate of this cycle. ECB may deliver final rate hike in December Market expectations have shifted in recent weeks as oil and gas prices jumped. The ECB also raised its inflation projections last week, supporting the forecast that "further policy tightening is needed to achieve the 2% target." Investors are betting on at least three more rate hikes. According to people familiar with the matter, officials also expect further tightening, though they have not yet formed a clear view on whether and when to raise rates. Irish central bank official Gabriel Makhlouf told Bloomberg Television on Thursday that in a period full of uncertainty, "every meeting is a meeting at which action is possible." Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the rate will remain at 2.75% until December 2027, when the ECB will begin cutting rates.