Waymo Exposed for Having a "Secret Army" of Vehicles Ready to Hit the Road; Pressure Mounts on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) Valuation Pillar Robotaxi

Title context: Waymo Exposed for Having a "Secret Army" of Vehicles Ready to Hit the Road; Pressure Mounts on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) Valuation Pillar Robotaxi Text: Well-known investor Ross Gerber previously posted on social media a "secret parking lot" filled with Waymo vehicles, pointing out that Alphabet's (GOOGL.US) autonomous driving unit is preparing to deploy capacity on a large scale, while Tesla, Inc.'s (TSLA.US) Cybercab is wasting time because "it didn't apply for an exemption to remove the brake pedal." In the same week, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a special order to Tesla, Inc., requiring it to answer 21 questions by September 30 explaining how this robotaxi, which has no steering wheel, pedals, or mirrors, complies with federal safety standards without an exemption. "More than 100 new Waymos ready to be deployed at any time" Gerber is the CEO and co-founder of wealth management firm Gerber Kawasaki. Photos he posted on X showed rows of Waymo vehicles neatly parked at a facility in Santa Monica. "I stumbled upon a secret parking lot today while wandering around Santa Monica," Gerber wrote. "It was full of new Waymos ready to be deployed, more than 100 of them. Something crazy is about to happen..." Based on this, he concluded that Alphabet's robotaxi unit is entering a large-scale ramp-up mode: "It looks like Waymo is entering a real scaling phase, while Tesla, Inc.'s Cybercab is wasting time because they didn't apply for an exemption to remove the brake pedal." Gerber's observation aligns with Waymo's publicly disclosed expansion data. Waymo currently operates more than 4,000 autonomous vehicles across the United States, completes more than 500,000 paid rides per week, and plans to reach 1 million paid rides per week in 20 cities globally by the end of this year; on Monday, September 14, it officially launched paid service in Las Vegas, becoming its 15th operating city in the United States, after the company had just expanded to Denver, San Diego, and Tampa. In international markets, testing in Tokyo and London is already being prepared, and Munich will become its first EU market, with commercial service targeted for the end of 2027 (according to Bloomberg as cited by Quartz). Waymo's fleet is also growing thicker: IBD cited industry estimates that its number of vehicles on the road could reach about 5,500 by the end of the year, and starting in 2027, the Ioniq 5 produced at Hyundai's Georgia plant will become the mainstay of the fleet, with Waymo reportedly planning to procure 50,000 vehicles by 2028; Morgan Stanley estimates that it will operate nearly 120,000 autonomous vehicles by 2032. Its funding ammunition is equally ample Waymo just completed a $16 billion financing at a $126 billion valuation earlier this year, and is currently in talks with Pimco, Blackstone, and Sixth Street for its first debt financing of more than $3 billion, with Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. serving as advisor. By comparison, Tesla, Inc.'s scale gap is stark. Around Cybercab's commercial debut earlier this month, Texas vehicle registration data showed that Tesla, Inc. had 420 autonomous vehicles registered in the state, of which only 45 were Cybercabs and the remaining 375 were modified Model Ys; Waymo, by contrast, had 988 registered vehicles in the same state. The gap in mileage accumulation is even larger on September 3, Tesla, Inc. announced that its Robotaxi fleet had cumulatively completed 1 million miles of unsupervised driving, while Waymo's cumulative fully autonomous driving mileage has exceeded 200 million miles, a difference of about 200 times. Regulatory hurdle: answer 21 questions before September 30 The Cybercab is a two-seat Siasun Robot&Automation taxi with no steering wheel, pedals, or mirrors, and currently operates only in parts of Austin through the Tesla, Inc. Robotaxi app. Musk calls it "the first car built specifically for unsupervised full self-driving," while Tesla, Inc. executives promise a "first-class experience at economy-class prices." But this unconventional design has now become the core of NHTSA's audit. NHTSA has given Tesla, Inc. a September 30 deadline to answer 21 questions explaining how the Cybercab complies with current federal safety standards without an exemption. Regulators want to know: whether temporarily installed steering or braking controls were used during the certification process, whether passengers can move the vehicle via the touchscreen, how the Cybercab satisfies requirements for foot-operated dynamic braking, turn signals, mirrors, rear visibility, and electronic stability control warnings; Tesla, Inc. must also disclose fleet size, expansion plans, and operational limits. The key doubt in the investigation is whether Tesla, Inc. certified vehicle compliance with configurations equipped with human driving controls, while putting Cybercabs without those devices on the road to carry paying passengers Tesla, Inc.'s guide for emergency responders has confirmed that some Cybercabs "typically" do not have steering wheels, but that for testing and validating safety systems, some vehicles were equipped with steering wheels, accelerator pedals, and brake pedals. There is an easily overlooked background here: under current U.S. law, fully autonomous vehicles do not need NHTSA approval as long as they are equipped with human driving devices such as steering wheels and brake pedals; if manufacturers want to remove these devices, they can apply for an exemption, but each manufacturer can only put a maximum of 2,500 such vehicles on the road per year. Tesla, Inc. did not take the exemption path, but instead chose self-certification a path with no numerical cap, but which also means it must prove the basis for compliance to regulators itself. This is the context of Gerber's remark that it "didn't apply for an exemption," and also the bullseye of NHTSA's questioning. NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison said the agency "fully supports the safe development and deployment of autonomous vehicles," but "needs to ensure all laws are followed." The cost of an incomplete response is not small: according to the order document, Tesla, Inc. could face litigation from the Department of Justice, as well as civil penalties of up to $27,874 per day, totaling about $139 million for the same series of violations. The regulatory review covers about 1,000 Cybercabs more than 20 times the number operating on Austin roads, showing that regulators are targeting not the current pilot but Tesla, Inc.'s planned expansion. The precedent is Amazon.com, Inc.'s Zoox: it took the same self-certification path in 2022, the audit dragged on for four years, and it was ultimately forced to recall all 105 Siasun Robot&Automation taxis before approval. Noise on the safety front is also accumulating. According to Austin city data obtained by Axios, since testing began in June 2025, there have been 10 incidents or complaints involving Tesla, Inc. autonomous vehicles, 7 of which were classified as safety concerns, including failure to yield at crosswalks and running flashing red lights. Retail sentiment slides toward "extremely bearish" On the Stocktwits platform, retail sentiment around Tesla, Inc. fell from "bearish" to "extremely bearish" over the past 24 hours, with 24-hour message volume rising 12%. Year to date, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has fallen about 20%, making it the worst performer among the "Magnificent Seven." One user wrote: "$TSLA as long as you understand pure camera systems, you know it can't operate in heavy rain, extremely dark environments, and dense fog. Therefore it cannot operate continuously under any conditions and will never reach L5. Sorry to say. NHTSA will shut down all unsupervised Cybercabs before the midterm elections... you can call it political manipulation then, but all I see is a carefully orchestrated exit scam." Another user questioned the fundamentals: "$TSLA show us demand data... they claim 500 miles on a full charge, but in reality it may be less than 400 miles. How long does charging take?? If you have to drive more than 2,000 miles to meet the deadline, good luck." What is intriguing is Gerber's own position: according to Koyfin data, as of June 30, Gerber Kawasaki still held 279,997 shares of Tesla, Inc., worth about $117.8 million, accounting for 3.1% of its portfolio. Criticism aside, real money is still in the game. Around the Cybercab launch earlier this month, Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER.US) announced layoffs of about 3,300 people (10% of its workforce) to shift resources toward ride-hailing and Siasun Robot&Automation taxi operations, and Gerber at the time called those laid-off employees "the first victims of the AI era." How much of Tesla, Inc.'s valuation does autonomous driving carry? The reason this competitive gap is so lethal is that a considerable portion of Tesla, Inc.'s valuation is bet on the Robotaxi business, which has not yet reached scale. In Morgan Stanley's sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model, out of the $400 price target, the Robotaxi business (Tesla Mobility) alone contributes $120 per share, or 30%, making it the second-largest source of value after network services ($144 per share); the automotive business itself is worth only $45 per share. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco explicitly wrote that continued expansion of the unsupervised fleet is the core driver for Tesla, Inc. to outperform the market this year, and that if the fleet can expand to more than 25 to 50 vehicles within days to weeks after launch, the stock price could react positively; conversely, if it is only a limited demonstration, the stock price will come under pressure. The bank also spotted a Cybercab on the streets of New York, and its AlphaWise team's research showed increased remote operator hiring activity in the New York area, suggesting Tesla, Inc. is laying groundwork for the New York market. Other major banks have taken an even more aggressive view: UBS Group AG previously estimated that if Tesla, Inc. can achieve annual deliveries at the 100,000 level by 2027 and reduce cost per mile to $0.25-$0.35, the Robotaxi segment alone could be valued at $150-$220 per share, accounting for as much as 40% of Tesla, Inc.'s valuation; Bank of America Corp once valued this business separately at up to $844 billion, about half of the company's overall market value. ARK Invest predicts that around 2029, Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous mobility business will support nearly 90% of the company's profit and market value (as cited). Tesla, Inc. currently has a market value of about $1.4 trillion and a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of more than 390 times the market has long been paying in advance for a business that has not yet generated meaningful revenue. According to Tipranks data, over the past three months, 25 Wall Street analysts' 12-month price target forecasts for Tesla, Inc. showed an average target price of $388.85, a highest forecast of $505.00, and a lowest forecast of $24.86, a degree of divergence rare among mega-cap stocks. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. added another layer of pressure this week: it cut its third-quarter delivery forecast for Tesla, Inc. from 490,000 vehicles to 435,000, citing weak sales in the United States, China, and Europe. Citizens analyst Andrew Boone, while reiterating a "market perform" rating, pointed out the industry consensus doubt: the autonomous driving industry remains skeptical of Tesla, Inc.'s pure camera-based approach, and safety concerns and technical challenges remain significant. Back to Gerber's "secret parking lot" post he saw hundreds of Waymos waiting to be deployed, and also saw a Cybercab whose certification basis is being questioned by regulators. For Tesla, Inc., autonomous driving is not just a new model in the product line, but a valuation pillar worth $120 per share and accounting for 30% of value; before NHTSA's September 30 deadline, every crack in that pillar will be magnified and scrutinized by the market.